Torino at Pisa

Serie A April 05, 2026 04:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Torino

-0.5

Torino's better record (9-6-15 away) vs Pisa's league-worst 2-12-16 drives 5% prob edge over -180 implied

Ω Bottom Line

Torino ML -135 (+4.8 EV): 62% model prob vs 57% implied, exploits Pisa's 2-12-16 disaster record

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Torino

Line: -0.5

60%

Torino's better record (9-6-15 away) vs Pisa's league-worst 2-12-16 drives 5% prob edge over -180 implied

MONEYLINE

Torino

64%

Model prob 62% vs 57% implied; Torino 15 pts better form exploits Pisa's 2W in 30 matches

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

58%

Both teams poor scoring (Torino 9W/30G, Pisa 2W/30G) projects 2.1 total goals

Game Analysis

Torino's Serie A pedigree (Simeone 8G/24, Vlasic/Moreo depth) gives 62.5% edge vs promoted Pisa lacking proven scorers; -0.5 spread juice kills value but ML clears breakeven by 3.3%. Under 2.5 fits 52% Serie A mid-table trend but totals losing across tiers (42-57% WR). Props capped at 60 max given unvalidated rosters/N=0 sport data.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Giovanni Simeone Torino

Over 0.5 goals 58%

8 goals in 24 matches vs Pisa weak defense; model projects 0.6 in favorable matchup

PROP ALERT

Nikola Vlasic Torino

Under 0.5 assists 56%

3 assists in 29 games; low-usage creator in low-scoring projected game

PROP ALERT

Stefano Moreo Torino

Under 0.5 goals 59%

6G/29M pace too slow for O0.5 vs Pisa (2W total)

PROP ALERT

Mehdi Léris Torino

Under 0.5 assists 57%

3A/27M; minimal creativity expected in road favorite spot

PROP ALERT

Duván Zapata Torino

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 55%

High-volume striker; projects 1.8 SOT vs poor Pisa backline

PROP ALERT

Samuele Ricci Torino

Under 0.5 assists 60%

Midfielder low assist output; game script limits chances

PROP ALERT

Alessandro Buongiorno Torino

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

CB rarely shoots on target; defensive focus expected

PROP ALERT

Vanja Milinković-Savić Torino

Over 2.5 saves 58%

Pisa desperation shots project 3+ saves needed

PROP ALERT

Lautaro Valenti Pisa

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Pisa low scoring (2W); limited chances vs Torino

PROP ALERT

Robert Gucher Pisa

Under 0.5 assists 59%

Captain low output in losing skid; underdog script

PROP ALERT

Adam Marušić Pisa

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Wingback volume suppressed by Torino press

PROP ALERT

Nícolas Pisa

Over 3.5 saves 60%

Torino attack (Simeone/Zapata) projects 4+ shots on target

PROP ALERT

Marius Marin Pisa

Under 0.5 assists 56%

DM minimal creation in bottom-table team

PROP ALERT

Tommaso Fantacci Pisa

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Pisa 2W total; striker underperforms in losses

PROP ALERT

Gael Ondoa Pisa

Over 3.5 saves 57%

Backup GK faces Torino volume; model projects 4 saves

PROP ALERT

Ivan Liser Pisa

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Fringe player low volume in desperate home game

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