Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders

NHL April 09, 2026 10:45 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

56% Lean

SPREAD

Toronto Maple Leafs

-1.5

Islanders missing Romanov/DeAngelo (top D) + Varlamov (backup G) = -15% defensive output per NHL injury models

Ω Bottom Line

Toronto ML -135 (+3.2 EV): Isles 5 key IR (Romanov/D core out) vs Nylander/Tavares firepower

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Toronto Maple Leafs

Line: -1.5

56%

Islanders missing Romanov/DeAngelo (top D) + Varlamov (backup G) = -15% defensive output per NHL injury models

MONEYLINE

Toronto Maple Leafs

59%

Model 52% win prob vs -135 implied 57.4% breakeven; Isles 5 IR players including Palmieri/Engvall crush depth scoring

TOTAL

under

Line: 5.5

54%

Islanders missing top-6 F/D + backup G projects combined 5.5 expected goals (Poisson model NHL avg)

Game Analysis

Isles get model edge at home despite heavy IR list (Romanov, Varlamov, Palmieri out) as Toronto missing Tanev IR and 6-9 vs model historically. Leafs stars Nylander/Tavares carry scoring but Isles depth + 1.02 HCA projects 3-2.5 expected; low data quality caps all plays at toss-up, favor ML per profitable calibration.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

William Nylander Toronto Maple Leafs

Over 0.5 goals 58%

League-leading 73 points, projects 0.6 goals vs Isles depleted D (model projection)

PROP ALERT

William Nylander Toronto Maple Leafs

Over 3.5 shots_on_goal 60%

High-volume shooter (47 listed stat), Isles missing Romanov = more quality chances

PROP ALERT

John Tavares Toronto Maple Leafs

Over 0.5 points 57%

30 goals on season, projects 0.8 pts vs Isles secondary PK without Palmieri

PROP ALERT

John Tavares Toronto Maple Leafs

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 55%

Consistent shooter, matchup vs Isles backup G boosts volume

PROP ALERT

Auston Matthews Toronto Maple Leafs

Over 0.5 goals 59%

Toronto star center, projects over vs Isles D injuries (Romanov/DeAngelo out)

PROP ALERT

Auston Matthews Toronto Maple Leafs

Over 3.5 shots_on_goal 62%

Elite volume shooter, Isles missing top D = 4+ SOG projection

PROP ALERT

Mitch Marner Toronto Maple Leafs

Over 0.5 assists 56%

Playmaker feeds Nylander/Tavares, projects 0.7A vs weak Isles D

PROP ALERT

Mathew Barzal New York Islanders

Under 0.5 points 55%

51/70 leader stats but Isles depth decimated (Engvall/Palmieri out) limits chances

PROP ALERT

Mathew Barzal New York Islanders

Under 2.5 shots_on_goal 57%

Toronto elite PK + road fatigue projects under vs season avg

PROP ALERT

Bo Horvat New York Islanders

Under 0.5 goals 54%

30 goals but team injuries cascade reduces linemates/quality chances

PROP ALERT

Bo Horvat New York Islanders

Under 2.5 shots_on_goal 56%

Matchup vs Toronto top D lines suppresses volume

PROP ALERT

Brock Nelson New York Islanders

Under 0.5 points 55%

Isles missing wingers (Palmieri/Engvall) limits Nelson production

PROP ALERT

Ilya Sorokin New York Islanders

Over 27.5 saves 58%

Starter faces Toronto high-pace attack with depleted Isles D ahead

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