Toronto Tempo at Minnesota Lynx

WNBA May 02, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

56% Lean

SPREAD

Minnesota Lynx

-4.5

Net +11.2% injury impact tilts lambda to Lynx 71-62 expected scores

Ω Bottom Line

Lynx +11.2% net injury edge vs depleted Tempo, $22k whales 100% home (1.1 EV ML)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Minnesota Lynx

Line: -4.5

56%

Net +11.2% injury impact tilts lambda to Lynx 71-62 expected scores

MONEYLINE

Minnesota Lynx

58%

Breakeven 58% met exactly by injury net edge + calibrated

Game Analysis

Lynx suffer Collier/Juhasz outs (-13.8%) but Tempo hemorrhages 5 players (-25%), netting Lynx +11.2% edge and model -4.5 spread. $22k whales 100% home (moderate signal). Depleted rosters tank total to 155.5 vs typical 165+.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Kayla McBride Minnesota Lynx

Over 17.5 points 60%

Model projection: usage up with Collier out, primary scorer

PROP ALERT

Natasha Howard Minnesota Lynx

Over 13.5 points 58%

Model projection: veteran alpha with frontcourt injuries

PROP ALERT

Nia Coffey Minnesota Lynx

Over 6.5 rebounds 57%

Model projection: rebounding load increases sans Juhasz/Collier

PROP ALERT

Olivia Miles Minnesota Lynx

Over 4.5 assists 56%

Model projection: playmaking bump in depleted backcourt

PROP ALERT

Reigan Richardson Minnesota Lynx

Under 8.5 points 55%

Model projection: reduced role behind McBride/Howard

PROP ALERT

Nia Coffey Minnesota Lynx

Over 1.5 three_pointers 59%

Model projection: volume up in injury spot

PROP ALERT

Liatu King Minnesota Lynx

Over 5.0 rebounds 57%

Model projection: frontcourt minutes surge

PROP ALERT

Kayla McBride Minnesota Lynx

Over 3.0 three_pointers 61%

Model projection: top usage shooter

PROP ALERT

Lexi Held Toronto Tempo

Under 20.5 points 60%

Model projection: team injuries limit possessions vs Lynx D

PROP ALERT

Kia Nurse Toronto Tempo

Over 14.5 points 58%

Model projection: secondary scoring up with multiple outs

PROP ALERT

Marina Mabrey Toronto Tempo

Over 3.5 assists 57%

Model projection: ballhandling load increases

PROP ALERT

Elizabeth Balogun Toronto Tempo

Under 4.0 rebounds 56%

Model projection: Lynx rebounding edge suppresses

PROP ALERT

Temi Fagbenle Toronto Tempo

Over 9.5 points 55%

Model projection: frontcourt usage boost

PROP ALERT

Kiki Rice Toronto Tempo

Over 2.5 assists 59%

Model projection: guard minutes expand

PROP ALERT

Lexi Held Toronto Tempo

Under 2.5 three_pointers 58%

Model projection: Lynx perimeter D + low pace

PROP ALERT

Marina Mabrey Toronto Tempo

Over 12.0 points 57%

Model projection: shot volume rises in depleted offense

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