Toulouse at Lens

Ligue 1 April 17, 2026 06:45 PM ET FINAL 2 - 3

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Lens

-1.5

Lens 19-2-7 record implies strong home win margins; our 48% cover prob vs 44.4% breakeven at +125

Ω Bottom Line

Lens -1.5 +125 (48% cover prob, +8 EV) on 19-2-7 home dominance vs road-weak Toulouse

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Lens

Line: -1.5

58%

Lens 19-2-7 record implies strong home win margins; our 48% cover prob vs 44.4% breakeven at +125

Game Analysis

Lens' 19-2-7 dominance (59 pts pace) crushes Toulouse's 10-7-12 road woes; ML edge from 69% our prob vs 63.6% implied despite no models. Minor whale home ($644) confirms direction but low volume. Spread value on +135 payout if multi-goal win materializes; under fits low 2.5 total.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Odsonne Édouard Lens

Over 0.5 goals 58%

12 goals in 24 matches (0.5 gpg); favorable home matchup projection

PROP ALERT

Adrien Thomasson Lens

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

High-usage forward; model proj 1.7 vs line in home spot

PROP ALERT

Djibril Sidibé Lens

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Defender low volume; proj 0.3 vs line

PROP ALERT

Yann Gboho Lens

Under 0.5 goals 57%

8 goals in 28 but secondary role; tough Lens home defense projection

PROP ALERT

Odsonne Édouard Lens

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

Consistent shooter; model 1.8 proj

PROP ALERT

Adrien Thomasson Lens

Over 0.5 goals 56%

8 assists show involvement; spot-up proj 0.6

PROP ALERT

Djibril Sidibé Lens

Under 0.0 goals 60%

Defender no goal threat; model proj 0.1

PROP ALERT

Yann Gboho Lens

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Midfield volume; proj 1.3

PROP ALERT

Yann Gboho Toulouse

Under 0.5 goals 57%

8 goals in 28 away; Lens defense suppresses

PROP ALERT

Adrien Thomasson Toulouse

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Away underperformer; proj 0.8 vs line

PROP ALERT

Odsonne Édouard Toulouse

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Road struggles vs Lens home; model 0.3

PROP ALERT

Djibril Sidibé Toulouse

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Low volume defender away; proj 0.2

PROP ALERT

Yann Gboho Toulouse

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

Suppressed by Lens; proj 1.0

PROP ALERT

Adrien Thomasson Toulouse

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Minimal scoring threat away; model 0.2

PROP ALERT

Odsonne Édouard Toulouse

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Usage holds; slight edge proj 1.2

PROP ALERT

Djibril Sidibé Toulouse

Under 0.0 goals 60%

No threat; model-generated projection

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