Udinese at Lazio
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
Lazio
-0.5
Our 52.5% prob exceeds market 51.2% implied on home -0.5 despite data limitations
Ω Bottom Line
Lazio -0.5 +1.6 EV (52.5% model vs 51.2% implied) in low-data Serie A home fav spot
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Lazio
Line: -0.5
Our 52.5% prob exceeds market 51.2% implied on home -0.5 despite data limitations
MONEYLINE
Lazio
Breakeven 51.2% but model at 52.5% yields marginal EV on light home favorite
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
Serie A avg 2.6 goals but model projects 2.3 total in neutral matchup
Game Analysis
No quant models or sharp signals diverge from efficient -105 ML/ -0.5 spread pricing Lazio slight home fave. Bayesian edge 1.1% on home cover with 53.5% our prob vs 52.4% implied. Under 2.5 aligns with Serie A ~2.7 gpg avg; props lean under low-volume attackers/GK overs on expected shots.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Matteo Cancellieri
Lazio
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Season 4 goals in 26 matches (0.15 gpg), low usage forward
PROP ALERT
Danilo Cataldi
Lazio
Under 0.5 assists
59%
Season 3 assists in 27 matches (0.11 apg), limited creator role
PROP ALERT
Gustav Isaksen
Lazio
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
Model projection 1.2 SOT vs Udinese defense (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Ivan Provedel
Lazio
Under 3.5 saves
58%
Udinese low shot volume expected, projection 3.2 saves
PROP ALERT
Alessio Romagnoli
Lazio
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
56%
Defender minimal attacking threat (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Nicolò Zaniolo
Lazio
Under 0.5 assists
59%
Season 6 assists/29 (0.21), inconsistent creator
PROP ALERT
Matteo Cancellieri
Lazio
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
57%
Low volume shooter, projection 0.8
PROP ALERT
Danilo Cataldi
Lazio
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
58%
Midfielder low SOT avg (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Keinan Davis
Udinese
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Season 10 goals/27 (0.37 gpg) but vs Lazio defense projects under
PROP ALERT
Nicolò Zaniolo
Udinese
Under 0.5 assists
58%
Season 6/29 assists (0.21), low in road games
PROP ALERT
Maduka Okoye
Udinese
Over 3.5 saves
57%
Lazio attack projects 4.2 shots on target, GK usage up
PROP ALERT
Oumar Solet
Udinese
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
56%
Defender minimal shots (model projection 0.3)
PROP ALERT
Nicolò Zaniolo
Udinese
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
57%
Season shots low, projection 0.8 vs Lazio