Valencia at Athletic Club
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
Athletic Club
-0.5
calibrated 58.3% home cover aligns with ML edge and moderate whale volume on home.
Ω Bottom Line
Athletic Club ML -140: 58% posterior + moderate whales ($6.7K) vs Valencia despite 0% model WR vs foes
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Athletic Club
Line: -0.5
calibrated 58.3% home cover aligns with ML edge and moderate whale volume on home.
MONEYLINE
Athletic Club
Posterior probability exactly matches devigged market at 58.3% with moderate whale confirmation on home.
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion shows zero edge with home posterior dead even at market 58.3%, but moderate $6.7K whale volume on Athletic Club adds minor confirmation amid stable lines. Poor data quality (27%) and zero calibration sample force low confidence; historical model fades vs these teams (0-7 combined). LaLiga 2.5 totals lean under on average but avoid due to 46.7% Lean tier WR.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Gorka Guruzeta
Athletic Club
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Season avg 9 goals/31 matches (0.29 gpg) below line; model projection conservative in neutral matchup.
PROP ALERT
Gorka Guruzeta
Athletic Club
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
Projected ~2.3 SOT based on 70 season total; striker usage supports over.
PROP ALERT
Yuri Berchiche
Athletic Club
Over 0.5 shots_on_target
57%
Wing back contributes ~0.8 SOT per game from season trends.
PROP ALERT
Unai Simón
Athletic Club
Under 2.5 saves
59%
94 saves season avg ~3.0 but low total projects fewer shots faced.
PROP ALERT
Hugo Duro
Valencia
Under 0.5 goals
60%
9 goals/32 matches (0.28 gpg) unders line consistently.
PROP ALERT
Largie Ramazani
Valencia
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
58%
45 SOT season projects 1.4 per game; winger volume holds.
PROP ALERT
Luis Rioja
Valencia
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
56%
Assists leader but low SOT volume projected under.
PROP ALERT
Pepelu
Valencia
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
57%
Midfielder low usage; model projects minimal SOT.
PROP ALERT
Julen Agirrezabala
Athletic Club
Under 3.0 saves
55%
54 saves season avg low; backup role limits exposure.
PROP ALERT
Hugo Duro
Valencia
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
59%
Goal scorer but SOT ~1.2 below line vs strong home D.
PROP ALERT
Gorka Guruzeta
Athletic Club
Under 2.0 shots_on_target
56%
Road opponent may limit chances.
PROP ALERT
Unai Simón
Athletic Club
Over 3.5 saves
55%
Home keeper faces Valencia attack; avg supports.
PROP ALERT
Yuri Berchiche
Athletic Club
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
58%
High minutes but low shot volume.
PROP ALERT
Largie Ramazani
Valencia
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
Away vs home favorite suppresses output.
PROP ALERT
Pepelu
Valencia
Over 0.5 shots_on_target
56%
Midfield insertion points; slight over edge.