Valencia at Mallorca
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
Mallorca
-0.5
Mallorca -0.5 +135 undervalues home win prob at 44% vs 42.6% implied breakeven
Ω Bottom Line
Mallorca +155 home dog +7.1 EV vs -195 juice on similar teams, 44% model home win prob
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Mallorca
Line: -0.5
Mallorca -0.5 +135 undervalues home win prob at 44% vs 42.6% implied breakeven
MONEYLINE
Mallorca
Overjuiced Valencia -195 (66% breakeven) vs our 44% home win prob creates +EV on +155 underdog
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
Poor scoring teams (9 wins each in 31 games) + 54F cool temps bias under 2.5 total
Game Analysis
Valencia -195 ML overjuiced vs pred market 61% away prob and both teams' poor records (9-7-15 home, 9-8-14 away). No situational edges or injuries, weather neutral. Moderate whale on away but low conviction ($7K vol) vs +EV home dog; totals weak market historically.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Vedat Muriqi
Mallorca
Over 0.5 goals
60%
21 goals in 30 matches (0.7 gpg) vs average LaLiga defense
PROP ALERT
Vedat Muriqi
Mallorca
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
High volume shooter (91 SOG season est.) in favorable home spot
PROP ALERT
Leo Román
Mallorca
Over 3.0 saves
56%
89 season saves (~3 spg) vs Valencia low-shot attack
PROP ALERT
Sergi Darder
Mallorca
Over 0.5 shots_on_target
55%
Midfield creator with consistent SOT in home games
PROP ALERT
Martin Valjent
Mallorca
Over 0.0 shots_on_target
55%
Defender occasional set-piece threat
PROP ALERT
Hugo Duro
Valencia
Under 0.5 goals
59%
9 goals in 30 (0.3 gpg) vs stout Mallorca backline
PROP ALERT
Julen Agirrezabala
Valencia
Over 2.5 saves
56%
54 season saves est. ~2.8 spg facing Muriqi threat
PROP ALERT
Largie Ramazani
Valencia
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
55%
36 shots season provides SOT volume