Vegas Golden Knights at Anaheim Ducks

NHL May 09, 2026 01:30 AM ET ● LIVE

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

Vegas Golden Knights

-1.5

model sims project even scoreline (6.9-6.9) but away -1.5 covers 34% vs +225 breakeven 30.8%; OMEGA spread confirms close game value

Ω Bottom Line

VGK -1.5 +225 (34% MC cover vs 31% breakeven, 10.5 EV) + O6.5 (65% posterior, whales away confirm)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Vegas Golden Knights

Line: -1.5

58%

model sims project even scoreline (6.9-6.9) but away -1.5 covers 34% vs +225 breakeven 30.8%; OMEGA spread confirms close game value

TOTAL

over

Line: 6.5

60%

Per-bet posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); OMEGA total and Dixon-Coles 19.2 combined lambda

Game Analysis

Ducks lose Gudas (D impact -6.3% lambda), tilting edge to Vegas in 50/50 Bayesian posterior. Extreme whales pile $438k (91% consensus) on VGK, strongest Tier 2 signal available. Poor data caps at lean; NHL home ice minimal (1.02x).

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jack Eichel Vegas Golden Knights

Over 1.0 points 60%

High-usage C vs Ducks weak center D; recent form 63 pts pace-adjusted

PROP ALERT

Jack Eichel Vegas Golden Knights

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 58%

90 SOG pace; Ducks allow 32.5 SA/G to centers (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Pavel Dorofeyev Vegas Golden Knights

Over 0.5 goals 55%

37 goals pace; top-line role vs Anaheim bottom D-pair

PROP ALERT

Adin Hill Vegas Golden Knights

Under 25.5 saves 57%

Model high total; Ducks pace projects 28 shots (omega adj)

PROP ALERT

Cutter Gauthier Anaheim Ducks

Over 0.5 points 59%

69 pts pace; VGK penalty kill 78%; powerplay matchup

PROP ALERT

Cutter Gauthier Anaheim Ducks

Over 0.5 goals 56%

41 goals pace; shoots 3.2/G vs VGK avg GA allowed

PROP ALERT

Jackson LaCombe Anaheim Ducks

Under 0.5 points 55%

48 pts pace but low PP time; VGK forecheck suppresses D points

PROP ALERT

Lukas Dostal Anaheim Ducks

Over 27.5 saves 58%

VGK shoots 31.2/G; high total projects 55+ SA combined

PROP ALERT

Mark Stone Vegas Golden Knights

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 57%

Captain usage up post-injury; Ducks 29th SA/60

PROP ALERT

William Karlsson Vegas Golden Knights

Over 0.5 points 56%

Middle-6 vs Gudas out soft matchup

PROP ALERT

Mason McTavish Anaheim Ducks

Over 2.0 shots_on_goal 55%

High volume shooter; VGK road SV% drop

PROP ALERT

Troy Terry Anaheim Ducks

Over 0.5 assists 58%

PP1 distributor with Gauthier; model usage boost

PROP ALERT

Shea Theodore Vegas Golden Knights

Under 0.5 points 55%

Ducks forecheck limits QB points

PROP ALERT

Alex Pietrangelo Vegas Golden Knights

Over 1.5 blocks 56%

High-event D vs Gauthier line

PROP ALERT

Cam Fowler Anaheim Ducks

Under 1.5 shots_on_goal 57%

VGK shutdown pair limits D shots

PROP ALERT

John Gibson Anaheim Ducks

Under 26.5 saves 59%

Omega high scoring projects fewer quality shots needed

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