Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds

MLB May 12, 2026 10:40 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Washington Nationals

1.5

+EV analysis: Market Consensus fair value 60.3% Nats RL cover vs retail pricing

Ω Bottom Line

Nats +1.5 60.3% Pinnacle fair cover (+35 EV) vs Reds -1.5 -149, sharp 1.7% away edge despite extreme whales home

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Washington Nationals

Line: 1.5

60%

+EV analysis: Market Consensus fair value 60.3% Nats RL cover vs retail pricing

MONEYLINE

Cincinnati Reds

60%

calibrated 59.8% exactly matches market breakeven for -149

TOTAL

under

Line: 10.0

55%

Market Consensus fair under 48.8% slight edge vs vig-implied; totals historically unprofitable

Game Analysis

Bayesian fuses market prior (Kalshi Reds 58.5%) with models to 50% Reds win, +8.5pp edge on Nats ML vs implied +140. MC 10k sims project 9.5-9.6 score (77.6% under 22.5, high conf). Reds injuries hit harder (-12% vs -7.8% Nats), net +4.2% Away; whales Home extreme volume contradicts, cap lean.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Season .288 BA leader; model projects 1.2 hits in neutral matchup (model-generated line)

PROP ALERT

Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

High-usage SS with power/speed; projects 1.9 TB (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds

Under 0.5 home_runs 59%

10 HR season pace ~0.2/g; no wind/park boost projects under (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Sal Stewart Cincinnati Reds

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

30 RBI leader; projects 0.7 RBI in lineup spot (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Chase Burns Cincinnati Reds

Over 5.5 strikeouts 58%

2.11 ERA leader w/48 K; matchup projects 6.0 K (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds

Over 0.5 steals 60%

Elite speed threat; projects 0.6 SB (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Chase Burns Cincinnati Reds

Over 5.0 strikeouts 57%

Strong K/9 rate projects favorably (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Sal Stewart Cincinnati Reds

Over 0.5 hits 55%

RBI producer projects hit (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

CJ Abrams Washington Nationals

Over 1.0 hits 58%

.287 BA leader; projects 1.2 hits (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

James Wood Washington Nationals

Under 0.5 home_runs 59%

11 HR pace ~0.2/g; neutral park projects under (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

CJ Abrams Washington Nationals

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

36 RBI leader projects 0.6+ (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Foster Griffin Washington Nationals

Over 4.5 strikeouts 56%

2.12 ERA; projects 5.0 K vs Reds lineup (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

James Wood Washington Nationals

Over 1.5 total_bases 58%

Power OF projects 1.8 TB (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

CJ Abrams Washington Nationals

Over 0.5 steals 59%

Speedy SS projects steal opportunity (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Foster Griffin Washington Nationals

Under 5.0 strikeouts 55%

Faces strong Reds bats; projects 4.5 K (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

James Wood Washington Nationals

Over 0.5 hits 56%

Rookie OF projects hit (model-generated)

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