Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds

MLB May 13, 2026 10:40 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

67% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Washington Nationals

1.5

model 10k sims project Nats +0.5 margin (10.3-9.8 score), 67% +1.5 cover vs 41.7% breakeven

Ω Bottom Line

Nats +1.5 +140 (67% MC cover +44 EV vs market lag); Over 9.0 (65% posterior, 20-run proj)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Washington Nationals

Line: 1.5

67%

model 10k sims project Nats +0.5 margin (10.3-9.8 score), 67% +1.5 cover vs 41.7% breakeven

MONEYLINE

Washington Nationals

50%

calibrated 50.1% Nats win vs 37.3% market implied (+12.8pp edge)

TOTAL

over

Line: 9.0

60%

calibrated 65.2% over 9 vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); MC projects 20.1 runs

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion pegs Reds at 57.5% win prob matching Kalshi, with $195k extreme whales confirming home lean despite 0% edge. Nats gain 4.2% net injury edge (Reds -12% lambda), value on +1.5 runline. Burns/Griffin sub-2.20 ERAs project under 8.5 in pitcher duel.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Season .292 BA leader projects 1.1 hits in high-total matchup (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds

Over 1.5 total_bases 55%

Power-speed threat in projected 20-run game (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds

Under 0.5 home_runs 62%

10 HR pace but single-game projection low (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Sal Stewart Cincinnati Reds

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

30 RBI team leader in favorable scoring spot (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Chase Burns Cincinnati Reds

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

48 K leader, 2.11 ERA projects strong K game (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Sal Stewart Cincinnati Reds

Over 0.5 hits 57%

RBI producer projects hit in high pace (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

Leadoff role boosts RBI opps in 20-run proj (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Chase Burns Cincinnati Reds

Over 4.5 strikeouts 59%

Recent form supports volume vs Nats bats (model projection)

PROP ALERT

CJ Abrams Washington Nationals

Over 1.0 hits 59%

.293 BA leader projects 1.2 hits high total (model projection)

PROP ALERT

James Wood Washington Nationals

Over 0.5 home_runs 54%

12 HR leader in boom scoring environment (model projection)

PROP ALERT

CJ Abrams Washington Nationals

Over 0.5 rbis 56%

36 RBI pace boosts in 20+ run proj (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Foster Griffin Washington Nationals

Over 4.5 strikeouts 58%

2.12 ERA leader projects Ks vs Reds (model projection)

PROP ALERT

James Wood Washington Nationals

Over 1.5 total_bases 55%

Power profile fits over in soft matchup (model projection)

PROP ALERT

CJ Abrams Washington Nationals

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

.293 hitter projects multi-base game (model projection)

PROP ALERT

James Wood Washington Nationals

Over 0.5 hits 60%

Key contributor in high-output game (model projection)

PROP ALERT

CJ Abrams Washington Nationals

Over 0.5 steals 55%

Speed threat on bases in favorable spot (model projection)

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