Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Washington Nationals
1.5
calibrated 53.7% vs market 50%, +3.7pp edge. OMEGA line suggests market -1.5 is too wide.
Ω Bottom Line
Over 7.5: Bayesian +7.6pp edge, OMEGA total 9.5, MC projects 9.2 — strong play with 10.96 EV per $100.
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Washington Nationals
Line: 1.5
calibrated 53.7% vs market 50%, +3.7pp edge. OMEGA line suggests market -1.5 is too wide.
TOTAL
over
Line: 7.5
calibrated 57.6% vs market 50%, +7.6pp edge. OMEGA total and simulation projection 9.2 confirm elevated scoring.
Game Analysis
Sharp money is on Detroit -2.2, but the Poisson/ELO model sees this as a pick'em game (4.9-4.9 expected). The Bayesian fusion gives Washington +2.2 a 57.5% cover probability, a +7.5pp edge. The total of 8.5 is low relative to the model's 9.5 projection, giving the over a 54% probability. However, data quality is degraded (64%), so confidence is tempered. The spread pick has the strongest edge despite sharp disagreement.