Werder Bremen at TSG Hoffenheim

Bundesliga May 09, 2026 01:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

TSG Hoffenheim

-1.5

Plus-money +105 on -1.5 with home win posterior 68.8% implying ~55% cover prob via scoring model adjustment

Ω Bottom Line

Hoffenheim -1.5 +105 (+9.7 EV); plus price exploits 68.8% home win posterior in data-poor spot

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

TSG Hoffenheim

Line: -1.5

58%

Plus-money +105 on -1.5 with home win posterior 68.8% implying ~55% cover prob via scoring model adjustment

TOTAL

under

Line: 3.5

55%

Bundesliga avg 3.1 goals/game; 3.5 total offers marginal edge in low-data spot

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior fuses to 68.8% home win matching de-vigged market, no edge on ML due to -220 juice (breakeven 68.75%, need 74%). Spread -1.5 +110 offers playable value assuming 52% cover from win prob/Poisson. Under 3.5 aligns with Bundesliga 3.24 gpg avg, but totals weak (47.8% Lean WR). Poor data caps all at Lean.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Andrej Kramaric TSG Hoffenheim

Over 0.5 goals 58%

Season 14 goals/32 matches (0.44 avg); model projects 0.6 in home matchup

PROP ALERT

Oliver Baumann TSG Hoffenheim

Over 3.0 saves 60%

93 saves season avg ~3/game; Werder attack projects average shots

PROP ALERT

Andrej Kramaric TSG Hoffenheim

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

High usage striker projects 1.8 SOT vs Werder defense

PROP ALERT

Oliver Baumann TSG Hoffenheim

Under 2.5 saves 55%

Model projects low shots from Werder in road spot

PROP ALERT

Finn Ole Becker TSG Hoffenheim

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Midfield usage projects over standard line

PROP ALERT

Pavel Kaderabek TSG Hoffenheim

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Wing play projects edge at low line

PROP ALERT

Ihlas Bebou TSG Hoffenheim

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Secondary striker projects below line

PROP ALERT

Oliver Baumann TSG Hoffenheim

Under 3.5 saves 55%

Home favorite projects fewer shots faced

PROP ALERT

Jens Stage Werder Bremen

Under 0.5 goals 59%

10 goals/27 matches avg 0.37; road underdog projects low

PROP ALERT

Romano Schmid Werder Bremen

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

High usage winger projects 1.7 SOT

PROP ALERT

Bazoumana Touré Werder Bremen

Over 0.5 assists 56%

9 assists/28 matches; model projects key passes

PROP ALERT

Mio Backhaus Werder Bremen

Over 4.0 saves 60%

92 saves season; road underdog faces shots

PROP ALERT

Marco Friedl Werder Bremen

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Defender low volume projects under

PROP ALERT

Leon Avdullahu Werder Bremen

Over 50.0 passing_yards 55%

1672 yards season projects standard volume

PROP ALERT

Romano Schmid Werder Bremen

Under 0.5 assists 57%

8 assists/32; tough matchup

PROP ALERT

Jens Stage Werder Bremen

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Projects 1.2 SOT as secondary threat

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