Werder Bremen at VfB Stuttgart

Bundesliga April 26, 2026 01:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

VfB Stuttgart

-1.5

Stuttgart superior record (17-5-8) vs Bremen road struggles (8-7-15); 48% model cover prob vs 43% breakeven at +130

Ω Bottom Line

VfB Stuttgart -1.5 +130: 17-5-8 home strength vs Bremen road fade, +10.4 EV at 48% cover prob

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

VfB Stuttgart

Line: -1.5

58%

Stuttgart superior record (17-5-8) vs Bremen road struggles (8-7-15); 48% model cover prob vs 43% breakeven at +130

MONEYLINE

VfB Stuttgart

60%

Home win prob 65% aligns with market but juiced; breakeven 64.9% met marginally

TOTAL

under

Line: 3.5

55%

Bundesliga totals historically losing (48.7% WR); expected goals ~3.0 from records

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion shows 67% Stuttgart win prob vs 66.1% implied, +0.9% edge but data too poor for conviction. No injuries/situational flags; DDN 6-0 vs teams (small N). Spread +130 offers best EV at 50% cover prob.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Deniz Undav VfB Stuttgart

Over 0.5 goals 60%

18 goals in 25 matches (0.72 gpg); strong home matchup vs poor Bremen defense (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Deniz Undav VfB Stuttgart

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

108 shots_on_target season avg ~4.3/game pace-adjusted; usage leader (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jamie Leweling VfB Stuttgart

Over 0.5 assists 57%

7 assists in 28 matches; creative mid vs leaky Bremen (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jamie Leweling VfB Stuttgart

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Secondary creator; consistent chances (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Angelo Stiller VfB Stuttgart

Under 0.5 assists 55%

Pass volume high but low conversion; deep mid (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Alexander Nübel VfB Stuttgart

Under 2.5 saves 59%

93 saves avg; home clean sheet potential vs Bremen (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Alexander Nübel VfB Stuttgart

Under 3.5 saves 58%

Strong home defense limits shots (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Deniz Undav VfB Stuttgart

Over 2.5 shots_on_target 57%

High volume shooter home (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jens Stage Werder Bremen

Under 0.5 goals 56%

9 goals in 25; tough Stuttgart defense (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Romano Schmid Werder Bremen

Under 0.5 assists 55%

8 assists in 30; road suppression (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Romano Schmid Werder Bremen

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

53 shots_on_target season; away fade (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Mio Backhaus Werder Bremen

Over 3.5 saves 59%

85 saves avg; faces Undav attack (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Jens Stage Werder Bremen

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Goal threat mid volume (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Marco Friedl Werder Bremen

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Defender low volume (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Mio Backhaus Werder Bremen

Over 4.5 saves 56%

Road GK faces pressure (model projection)

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