1. FC Heidenheim 1846 at FC Cologne

Bundesliga May 10, 2026 03:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

49% Lean

MONEYLINE

1. FC Heidenheim 1846

None

Away posterior 48.8% win prob vs +220 breakeven 31.3%; huge EV despite low WR.

Ω Bottom Line

Heidenheim ML +220: 48.8% posterior vs 31% implied (+56 EV); rare dog value in 2-way line

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

1. FC Heidenheim 1846

49%

Away posterior 48.8% win prob vs +220 breakeven 31.3%; huge EV despite low WR.

TOTAL

under

Line: 3.5

55%

Bundesliga avg ~3.0 goals/game; model leans under 3.5 at 55% prob vs 52.4% implied.

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior pegs Cologne win at 51.2% matching market prior, but +220 on Heidenheim (48.8% model) yields +56 EV per $100 due to pricing inefficiency. Spread offers no edge with away +0.5 juiced to -125 (48.8% cover prob <55.6% breakeven). Under 3.5 total leans value at Bundesliga norms (~3.0 gpg) with 55% model prob.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Said El Mala FC Cologne

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Season 12 goals/32 matches (0.38 avg); projects under vs expected matchup (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Marvin Schwäbe FC Cologne

Over 3.0 saves 58%

GK avg projects over standard line in Bundesliga (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Eric Martel FC Cologne

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 57%

Midfield usage low; projects under (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Arijon Ibrahimovic FC Cologne

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Limited role projects under line (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Said El Mala FC Cologne

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

Avg below line in recent form (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Marvin Schwäbe FC Cologne

Over 2.5 saves 58%

Home GK edge in expected shots faced (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Eric Martel FC Cologne

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Non-striker low goal output (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Arijon Ibrahimovic FC Cologne

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Fringe player projects no goal (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Budu Zivzivadze 1. FC Heidenheim 1846

Under 0.5 goals 60%

6 goals/18 matches (0.33 avg); under vs home D (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Diant Ramaj 1. FC Heidenheim 1846

Under 3.5 saves 57%

Away GK fewer shots expected (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Marnon Busch 1. FC Heidenheim 1846

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Assists leader but low SOT (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Patrick Mainka 1. FC Heidenheim 1846

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Defender minimal attacking (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Budu Zivzivadze 1. FC Heidenheim 1846

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 59%

Projects under away vs Cologne D (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Diant Ramaj 1. FC Heidenheim 1846

Over 2.5 saves 57%

Road game more shots (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Marnon Busch 1. FC Heidenheim 1846

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Assists focus, low goals (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Patrick Mainka 1. FC Heidenheim 1846

Under 0.5 goals 60%

CB no goal threat (model projection)

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