AFC Bournemouth at Fulham

EPL May 09, 2026 02:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

MONEYLINE

AFC Bournemouth

None

calibrated 62.3% win prob exceeds -155 implied 60.8% for +2.5 EV

Ω Bottom Line

Bournemouth ML -155 +2.5 EV (62% model vs 61% breakeven); fade juiced -0.5 spread

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

AFC Bournemouth

60%

calibrated 62.3% win prob exceeds -155 implied 60.8% for +2.5 EV

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior pegs Bournemouth win at 63.6% matching devigged prior, but spread +125 implies only 44% creating 19pp edge ($43 EV/100). Pinnacle fair value flags home ML +EV (47.5% vs 36% implied) but posterior caps it; rain/cool temps tilt 3.5 under despite fair 50.7% over. Poor data caps all at Lean.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Harry Wilson Fulham

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Season 10 goals/33 matches (0.30 avg); model projects 0.25 vs Bournemouth defense (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Harry Wilson Fulham

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 57%

73 shots/33 (2.2 total shots); SOT ~1.2 avg, projects 1.1 (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Bernd Leno Fulham

Over 3.0 saves 56%

91 saves season avg ~2.7/game; Bournemouth attack projects moderate shots (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Joachim Andersen Fulham

Under 0.5 goals 60%

CB rarely scores; projects 0.05 (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Harry Wilson Fulham

Under 0.5 assists 59%

6 assists/33 (0.18 avg); low usage projects under (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Bernd Leno Fulham

Over 2.5 saves 55%

Consistent GK volume; matchup supports (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Harry Wilson Fulham

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

High shot volume supports baseline (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Joachim Andersen Fulham

Under 0.5 assists 60%

Defender negligible assists (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Junior Kroupi AFC Bournemouth

Under 0.5 goals 57%

12 goals/30 (0.40 avg); Fulham defense caps projection to 0.35 (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Evanilson AFC Bournemouth

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

65 shots season; SOT avg 1.3, projects 1.2 vs Fulham (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Djordje Petrovic AFC Bournemouth

Over 2.5 saves 56%

101 saves avg ~3/game; Fulham Wilson projects shots (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Marcos Senesi AFC Bournemouth

Under 0.5 assists 59%

5 assists/34 (0.15 avg); defender low projection (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Junior Kroupi AFC Bournemouth

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Young attacker consistent SOT baseline (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Evanilson AFC Bournemouth

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Striker avg projects under vs Fulham backline (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Djordje Petrovic AFC Bournemouth

Under 3.0 saves 56%

Home game lower shots expected (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Marcos Senesi AFC Bournemouth

Under 0.5 goals 60%

CB zero goal threat (model projection)

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