AJ Auxerre at Le Havre AC
Ω
OMEGA PICK
62%
Lean
SPREAD
Le Havre AC
-0.5
Model sees 60% home win prob vs away implied 68.8%, but +130 spread price inefficient for home underperformer
Ω Bottom Line
Le Havre ML +140 (60% model vs 42% implied, +8.6 EV) as Auxerre road dogs overrated
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Le Havre AC
Line: -0.5
Model sees 60% home win prob vs away implied 68.8%, but +130 spread price inefficient for home underperformer
MONEYLINE
Le Havre AC
Home ML +140 (breakeven 41.7%) vs our 60% prob creates +8.6 EV; Auxerre's 5-7-15 record overrates them
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
Ligue 1 avg 2.4 goals/game; both teams low-output leaders (top scorers 6G in 25+ matches)
Game Analysis
Le Havre +150 ML offers 3.2 EV (our 62% > 40% breakeven) in standard Ligue 1 spot (2.4 goals avg, 58% 2.5 unders). Spread -190 too juiced without form/injury edges; model 1-0 vs home team. Props lean under on low-volume leaders (Soumare/Sinayoko 0.22 GPG).
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Lassine Sinayoko
Le Havre AC
Under 0.5 goals
60%
6G in 25 matches avg 0.24; low usage forward vs Auxerre defense
PROP ALERT
Rassoul Ndiaye
Le Havre AC
Under 0.5 assists
58%
3A in 27 matches; secondary creator, model proj 0.1
PROP ALERT
Lassine Sinayoko
Le Havre AC
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
Model proj 1.2 SOT; low xG team