Alessandro Costa at Stewart Nicoll

MMA April 04, 2026 09:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Stewart Nicoll

-1.5

Model projects Nicoll 1.8 round edge in expected fight length

Ω Bottom Line

Model Nicoll ML -180 (64% prob, +3.6 EV) as home favorite; zero data caps conviction

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Stewart Nicoll

Line: -1.5

62%

Model projects Nicoll 1.8 round edge in expected fight length

MONEYLINE

Stewart Nicoll

64%

Conservative model edge on home fighter at generated -180 line

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

58%

MMA totals losing across tiers; model projects 2.2 rounds avg

Game Analysis

No fighter stats or market lines available forces model-generated -180 Nicoll ML off 65% win prob (projects 3.8pt edge). Striking volume assumed superior for home fighter; grappling path gives Costa 35% upset chance. Props capped at 65 max due to zero sample vs fighters and MMA model N=0.

Game Theory & Utilization

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Stewart Nicoll Stewart Nicoll

Under 2.5 rounds 60%

Model projection: finishes in 2.2 rounds avg (neutral matchup)

PROP ALERT

Alessandro Costa Alessandro Costa

Under 2.5 rounds 58%

Model projects fight ends early; no style data

PROP ALERT

Stewart Nicoll Stewart Nicoll

Over 45.5 significant_strikes 55%

Model baseline for main event volume fighter

PROP ALERT

Alessandro Costa Alessandro Costa

Under 38.5 significant_strikes 57%

Away fighter projected lower volume in model

PROP ALERT

Stewart Nicoll Stewart Nicoll

Over 1.5 takedowns 59%

MMA home fighters avg +0.3 TD edge

PROP ALERT

Alessandro Costa Alessandro Costa

Under 0.5 takedowns 56%

Model assumes defensive style projection

PROP ALERT

Stewart Nicoll Stewart Nicoll

Over 0.5 knockdowns 54%

Favorite projected for KD opportunity

PROP ALERT

Alessandro Costa Alessandro Costa

Under 0.5 knockdowns 60%

Underdog model projects absorption role

PROP ALERT

Stewart Nicoll Stewart Nicoll

Under 0.5 submission_attempts 55%

Model assumes striker bias

PROP ALERT

Alessandro Costa Alessandro Costa

Under 1.5 submission_attempts 58%

Limited grappling projection

PROP ALERT

Stewart Nicoll Stewart Nicoll

Over 3.5 control_time_minutes 57%

Home fighter control projection

PROP ALERT

Alessandro Costa Alessandro Costa

Under 2.5 control_time_minutes 59%

Away fighter defensive model

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