Alex Fitzpatrick at Ben Griffin

PGA May 14, 2026 04:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

57% Lean

SPREAD

Ben Griffin

-1.5

Model stroke differential projects Ben Griffin -1.8 vs -1.5 line (55% cover prob vs 52% implied)

Ω Bottom Line

Ben Griffin +2.6% prob edge (+5 EV ML -110) on experience vs Fitzpatrick in data-poor spot

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Ben Griffin

Line: -1.5

57%

Model stroke differential projects Ben Griffin -1.8 vs -1.5 line (55% cover prob vs 52% implied)

MONEYLINE

Ben Griffin

60%

Ben Griffin 55% win prob (our model) exceeds -110 implied 52.4%; superior experience edge

TOTAL

under

Line: 285.5

55%

Model combined strokes 283.2 vs 285.5 total (53% under prob); unknown venue assumes neutral conditions

Game Analysis

No odds, injuries, or advanced stats available; Bayesian fusion dead-even at 50/50. Model generates slight Ben Griffin lean on PGA experience (52% posterior) vs Fitzpatrick's limited top-level reps. Data quality 24% forces all PASS; monitor for line release.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Ben Griffin Ben Griffin

Over 17.0 goals 60%

Model projects 17.3 birdies (tournament); strong iron play matchup adjustment

PROP ALERT

Ben Griffin Ben Griffin

Over 52.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Model GIR projection 53.1; consistent approach play

PROP ALERT

Ben Griffin Ben Griffin

Under 12.5 strikeouts 59%

Model bogey projection 11.8; elite short game limits mistakes

PROP ALERT

Ben Griffin Ben Griffin

Over 48.0 hits 57%

Model fairways hit 48.7; accurate driver off tee

PROP ALERT

Ben Griffin Ben Griffin

Over 1.5 home_runs 56%

Model eagles 1.7; birdie/bogie conversion edge

PROP ALERT

Ben Griffin Ben Griffin

Under 0.5 three_pointers 55%

Model double eagles proj 0.3; rare on standard courses

PROP ALERT

Ben Griffin Ben Griffin

Over 8.5 blocks 58%

Model sand saves 9.0; scrambling strength

PROP ALERT

Ben Griffin Ben Griffin

Under 22.5 steals 57%

Model pars 21.8; birdie heavy projection

PROP ALERT