Alexander Volkov at Waldo Cortes Acosta

MMA May 10, 2026 01:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Waldo Cortes Acosta

-0.5

calibrated + minor whale signal projects 54% home cover probability

Ω Bottom Line

Cortes Acosta -0.5 lean (+3.1 EV) on minor whales in 54% model spot, data-poor HW under 2.5

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Waldo Cortes Acosta

Line: -0.5

55%

calibrated + minor whale signal projects 54% home cover probability

MONEYLINE

Waldo Cortes Acosta

55%

54% win prob exceeds -110 breakeven (52.4%) amid minor whale action on home

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

Heavyweight model projects early finish (2.3 expected rounds); totals historically weak

Game Analysis

Volkov's 80.5" reach vs Cortes Acosta's 77" (+12% edge) anchors 54% win prob vs even Bayesian prior. Minor $4.7K whales on home low-confidence signal (-1pt adjustment). HW model total 2.3 rounds (under 2.5 @55%). Data dearth caps at LEAN tier.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Alexander Volkov Alexander Volkov

Over 47.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Model projection: striker volume high vs shorter opponent (avg 52.3 sig strikes)

PROP ALERT

Alexander Volkov Alexander Volkov

Under 1.5 goals 57%

Low takedown volume career (0.8 avg); striking focus

PROP ALERT

Alexander Volkov Alexander Volkov

Under 0.5 strikeouts 56%

Rare knockdowns (0.3 avg); matchup even

PROP ALERT

Alexander Volkov Alexander Volkov

Over 55.5 hits 58%

Total strikes avg 58.1; reach edge projects volume

PROP ALERT

Alexander Volkov Alexander Volkov

Over 2.5 blocks 55%

Strong TD defense projects over (3.2 avg)

PROP ALERT

Alexander Volkov Alexander Volkov

Under 0.5 touchdowns 59%

Finishes rare recently (0.2 avg)

PROP ALERT

Alexander Volkov Alexander Volkov

Over 1.5 steals 56%

Reversals/projected control shifts avg 1.8

PROP ALERT

Alexander Volkov Alexander Volkov

Over 32.5 shots_on_target 57%

Accurate strikes avg 35.4 on target

PROP ALERT