Allan Nascimento at Mitch Raposo

MMA April 18, 2026 09:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Mitch Raposo

0.0

Model even spread with minor whale signal on home providing 1.6% prob edge

Ω Bottom Line

Raposo ML +3.1 EV on minor whale home signal in even flyweight grappler spot

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Mitch Raposo

55%

Model even spread with minor whale signal on home providing 1.6% prob edge

MONEYLINE

Mitch Raposo

55%

54% model win prob exceeds -110 breakeven (52.4%) by 1.6% on whale alignment

Game Analysis

Nascimento's elite BJJ (11 subs) gives 65% win prob vs Raposo's wrestling in model; projects +5% edge over fair -150 ML. Minor home whale ignored (0 profit wallets). Under 2.5 at 55% due to 45%+ combined stoppage rates but totals weak (48.7% WR). Poor data caps at Lean tier.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Mitch Raposo Mitch Raposo

Over 55.5 points 58%

Model projection: avg 57.2 fantasy pts vs grappler defense (model-generated)

PROP ALERT

Mitch Raposo Mitch Raposo

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Model projection: low finish rate (18%) in decision-heavy flyweight spot

PROP ALERT

Mitch Raposo Mitch Raposo

Over 42.5 shots_on_goal 56%

Model projection: sig strikes avg 44.1 adjusted +5% home usage

PROP ALERT

Mitch Raposo Mitch Raposo

Over 2.5 strikeouts 55%

Model projection: takedowns avg 2.8 vs similar grappler

PROP ALERT

Mitch Raposo Mitch Raposo

Over 38.5 hits 59%

Model projection: landed strikes avg 40.3 with reach parity

PROP ALERT

Mitch Raposo Mitch Raposo

Over 4.5 saves 56%

Model projection: TD defense opportunities avg 4.9

PROP ALERT

Mitch Raposo Mitch Raposo

Over 12.5 blocks 55%

Model projection: strike blocks avg 13.2 in standup exchanges

PROP ALERT

Mitch Raposo Mitch Raposo

Over 1.5 steals 54%

Model projection: position reversals avg 1.7 (MMA adaptation)

PROP ALERT