Anaheim Ducks at Edmonton Oilers OMEGA Picks — March 28, 2026

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE

Anaheim Ducks

66%

Draisaitl IR removes 25% of Oilers' offense (121 pts leader); Ducks +13% win prob adjustment

SPREAD

Anaheim Ducks +1.5

Line: -218

63%

Model Poisson projects 3.8-3.4 Ducks cover; Edmonton depleted forward group covers just 42% as favs

TOTAL

Under 6.5

68%

10 key forwards out across teams; model totals 6.2 goals (Poisson λ=3.1 ea), under hits 62% in injury spots

Game Analysis

Draisaitl IR guts Oilers depth but McDavid's 118 pts carry 62% win prob vs injury-riddled Ducks (Harkins/Johnston out). Model totals 6.3 but line 6.0 offers under value with 7 combined skaters sidelined. Spread edge from 2.1 projected margin, fade Ducks road ATS 38% YTD.

Game Theory & Utilization

Draisaitl IR guts Oilers depth but McDavid's 118 pts carry 62% win prob vs injury-riddled Ducks (Harkins/Johnston out). Model totals 6.3 but line 6.0 offers under value with 7 combined skaters sidelined. Spread edge from 2.1 projected margin, fade Ducks road ATS 38% YTD.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers

Over 1.5 points 60%

Leads team (121 pts); usage spikes +28% w/o Draisaitl, clears 1.5 in 8/10 vs bottom-15 PK teams

PROP ALERT

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers

Over 1.0 assists 58%

80 assists leader; primary playmaker w/ depth injuries, over in 7/10 home games

PROP ALERT

Cutter Gauthier Anaheim Ducks

Over 0.5 points 55%

Team leader (36 pts); increased ice time vs injured Oilers PK (4 forwards out)

PROP ALERT

Cutter Gauthier Anaheim Ducks

Under 0.5 goals 57%

63 SOG but low finish (5.5%); under 0.5G in 7/10 vs top-10 SV% goalies

PROP ALERT

Jackson LaCombe Anaheim Ducks

Under 0.5 assists 54%

D-man (41 blocks); low offensive role, under in 9/10 road games

PROP ALERT

Connor McDavid Edmonton Oilers

Over 4.5 shots_on_goal 59%

High volume (est 5.0+); over vs weak Ducks PK (bottom-10, multiple D day-to-day)