Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks
Ω
DDN SI PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Anaheim Ducks
-1.5
Market Consensus de-vigged puts Vancouver +1.5 cover at 63.1% vs retail -185 implied 64.9% — the Anaheim -1.5 side at +154 is priced near fair with no model disagreement (edge -0.1pp)
Ω Bottom Line
Ducks ML is the least-bad of three no-edge sides: Kalshi+Market Consensus both say 59% fair vs -155 bought at 60.8% implied — 0.5u lean only, NHL paused, zero quantitative edge (fusion +0.0pp)
All DDN SI Picks
MONEYLINE
Anaheim Ducks
Kalshi (58.5%) and Market Consensus fair value (59.1%) both put Anaheim above the retail-implied breakeven, but the -155 price erodes the edge to under 2pp
SPREAD
Anaheim Ducks
Line: -1.5
Market Consensus de-vigged puts Vancouver +1.5 cover at 63.1% vs retail -185 implied 64.9% — the Anaheim -1.5 side at +154 is priced near fair with no model disagreement (edge -0.1pp)
TOTAL
under
Line: 6.5
Weak sharp divergence (0.5%) favors the under and both teams lost key forwards (Terry, Poehling, Chytil) — but Over posterior is 54.5% vs 54.5% market (zero edge) and totals are the weakest model market (48.7% historical WR)
Game Analysis
Ducks at 59% to Vancouver's 41% per the only available posterior, with Vancouver absorbing a -25% injury hit (Demko and Chytil IR) versus Anaheim's -18.9%, so the away lean is real on direction. But there is no book to price it, scoring model/team strength failed, and NHL is PAUSED on calibration (ROI -13.9%, CLV beat 25%), which puts this squarely in observation territory.