Anaheim Ducks at Vegas Golden Knights

NHL May 07, 2026 01:30 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

65% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Vegas Golden Knights

-1.5

Sharp 9.9% divergence + +EV analysis shows +27.7% on home puck line vs fair 36.5%

Ω Bottom Line

VGK puck -1.5: sharps 9.9% edge + $438k extreme whales 91% home vs Gudas-out Ducks (+8.2 EV)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Vegas Golden Knights

Line: -1.5

65%

Sharp 9.9% divergence + +EV analysis shows +27.7% on home puck line vs fair 36.5%

MONEYLINE

Vegas Golden Knights

62%

calibrated 61.8% home matches market but confirmed by extreme whale volume and sharp consensus

TOTAL

under

Line: 6.5

57%

Sharp edge 2.6% under (fair 52%) despite cross-market over lean; NHL totals model weak historically

Game Analysis

Ducks hammered by injuries (Gudas out, -12.6% lambda) give Vegas clear home edge, aligning Bayesian 62% posterior with market ML. Pinnacle +EV screams Ducks +1.5 cover at 62.7% fair prob vs ~52% implied. Weak sharp home signal + minimal away whales; totals neutral but historically unprofitable. Degraded data caps all at lean tier.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jack Eichel Vegas Golden Knights

Over 1.0 points 60%

Team leader 63 pts; high usage vs weakened Ducks D (Gudas out); model projection

PROP ALERT

Jack Eichel Vegas Golden Knights

Over 0.5 assists 58%

90 assists season leader; playmaker edge in home matchup

PROP ALERT

Jack Eichel Vegas Golden Knights

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 57%

Consistent shooter; Ducks D vulnerable

PROP ALERT

Pavel Dorofeyev Vegas Golden Knights

Over 0.5 goals 55%

37 goals leader; sniper vs tired Ducks

PROP ALERT

Pavel Dorofeyev Vegas Golden Knights

Over 2.0 shots_on_goal 59%

Volume shooter; model projects over

PROP ALERT

Mark Stone Vegas Golden Knights

Over 0.5 points 56%

Captain consistent producer; home ice boost

PROP ALERT

Alex Pietrangelo Vegas Golden Knights

Under 0.5 assists 55%

D-man focuses defense; low offense projection

PROP ALERT

William Karlsson Vegas Golden Knights

Over 2.0 shots_on_goal 58%

Middle-6 volume; favorable matchup

PROP ALERT

Cutter Gauthier Anaheim Ducks

Over 0.5 points 57%

Ducks leader 41/69; rookie upside but tough VGK matchup

PROP ALERT

Cutter Gauthier Anaheim Ducks

Under 0.5 goals 59%

VGK strong PK; low goal projection

PROP ALERT

Cutter Gauthier Anaheim Ducks

Under 2.5 shots_on_goal 56%

Suppressed by VGK D; model under

PROP ALERT

Jackson LaCombe Anaheim Ducks

Under 0.5 assists 55%

D-man low production; road game

PROP ALERT

Mason McTavish Anaheim Ducks

Over 0.5 points 58%

High usage center; injury cascade potential

PROP ALERT

Frank Vatrano Anaheim Ducks

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 57%

Volume shooter; model projects hit

PROP ALERT

John Gibson Anaheim Ducks

Over 27.5 saves 60%

Starter faces VGK offense; high shots expected

PROP ALERT

Leo Carlsson Anaheim Ducks

Under 0.5 points 56%

Rookie vs elite VGK; suppressed

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