Arizona Diamondbacks at Baltimore Orioles
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Arizona Diamondbacks
1.5
Omega spread 0.0 and MC margin -0.1 pts show ARI +1.5 covers 65%+ vs market implying 44%
Ω Bottom Line
ARI ML +109: Bayesian edge +10.7% as models regress BAL overvalue (49.5% posterior home win vs 56.7% implied), MC confirms near coinflip
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Arizona Diamondbacks
Line: 1.5
Omega spread 0.0 and MC margin -0.1 pts show ARI +1.5 covers 65%+ vs market implying 44%
MONEYLINE
Arizona Diamondbacks
Bayesian posterior 49.5% home win (ARI 50.5%) vs market 56.7% implied, +6% edge on dog
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.5
Omega total 24.0 and MC 24.7 expected vs market 8.5 implies massive over bias
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion (42% Baltimore win) lags omega_model (29%) creating dog ML value, but MC sim razor-close at 45.7% home/46.9% away with 58% Arizona pick'em cover edge. Whales ($8k moderate) on Arizona align with Bayesian away signal despite low agreement. Equal -10% injury hits both sides, no pitchers/weather; cap at lean due to 50% data quality.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Gunnar Henderson
Baltimore Orioles
Over 0.5 hits
58%
Leads team BA, model projects 1.1 hits in high total spot
PROP ALERT
Gunnar Henderson
Baltimore Orioles
Under 0.5 home_runs
60%
6 HR leader but avg < line in neutral matchup
PROP ALERT
Adley Rutschman
Baltimore Orioles
Over 1.5 total_bases
57%
Consistent hitter, usage up with injuries
PROP ALERT
Anthony Santander
Baltimore Orioles
Over 0.5 rbis
56%
Power spot in lineup vs weak ARI arms
PROP ALERT
Kyle Bradish
Baltimore Orioles
Over 5.5 strikeouts
57%
17 K leader, high projection vs ARI
PROP ALERT
Corbin Carroll
Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 1.0 hits
60%
.327 BA leader, leadoff spot boosts
PROP ALERT
Ketel Marte
Arizona Diamondbacks
Under 0.5 home_runs
59%
Only 2 HR, regression vs BAL staff
PROP ALERT
Christian Walker
Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 0.5 rbis
56%
Cleanup power in projected high total
PROP ALERT
Eduardo Rodriguez
Arizona Diamondbacks
Over 4.5 strikeouts
58%
0.50 ERA, model 5.2 K vs BAL