Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets

MLB April 09, 2026 11:10 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

New York Mets

0.0

MC sims show Mets cover +0.0 in 47.1% vs 46.7% breakeven, ELO projects Mets +1.5 edge

Ω Bottom Line

Mets +186 ML (47% model prob vs 35% implied) in pick'em with ELO home edge, MC cover 47.1%

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

New York Mets

55%

MC sims show Mets cover +0.0 in 47.1% vs 46.7% breakeven, ELO projects Mets +1.5 edge

MONEYLINE

New York Mets

58%

Model win prob 47.1% vs +186 implied 35%, creating marginal value on home dog

Game Analysis

Pick'em matchup with MC projecting razor-thin Mets edge (47.1% cover +0.0, std 5.1) and ELO favoring home by 1.5 despite Poisson even scores at 12-12. Injuries heavy both sides (Soto/Gurriel out) but no clear tilt; model total 23.9 undershoots 24 line slightly. Data quality poor (42%) caps conviction—all signals neutral, favor ML dog value over juice.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Corbin Carroll Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Team leader in AVG (.297), high usage early season (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Corbin Carroll Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

Leads team with 9 total bases, speed/power profile fits Citi matchup

PROP ALERT

Francisco Lindor New York Mets

Over 0.5 hits 60%

Core Mets hitter, consistent contact vs RHP (model projection)

PROP ALERT

Francisco Lindor New York Mets

Under 0.5 home_runs 59%

High total line (24) caps HR upside in pitcher-friendly Citi early April

PROP ALERT

Ketel Marte Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 1.0 hits 57%

Key Dbacks bat, strong vs Mets pitching history (model adj.)

PROP ALERT

Pete Alonso New York Mets

Over 1.5 total_bases 58%

Power threat, projects well despite Soto out increasing plate appearances

PROP ALERT

Christian Walker Arizona Diamondbacks

Under 0.5 home_runs 55%

Citi suppresses HR, Gurriel IL reduces lineup protection

PROP ALERT

Starling Marte New York Mets

Over 0.5 hits 56%

Veteran contact hitter, favorable early season matchup

PROP ALERT

Eduardo Rodriguez Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 5.5 strikeouts 57%

0.00 ERA leader, Mets young lineup strikes out at high clip

PROP ALERT

Francisco Alvarez New York Mets

Over 0.5 hits 55%

Team HR leader (3), projects hit in high-total environment

PROP ALERT

Zac Gallen Arizona Diamondbacks

Under 6.0 strikeouts 54%

Mets contact-heavy, model projects sub-6K in Citi conditions

PROP ALERT

Mark Vientos New York Mets

Over 1.0 total_bases 56%

Filling Soto void, usage boost vs Dbacks pitching

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