AS Roma at Parma

Serie A May 10, 2026 04:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

70% Strong

SPREAD

AS Roma

-0.5

82.6% Roma win prob (posterior) vs 67.7% implied at -210 yields +22 EV

Ω Bottom Line

Roma -195 ML +25 EV: 82.6% posterior >> 66% vigged breakeven despite whale contrarian $34k on Parma

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

AS Roma

Line: -0.5

70%

82.6% Roma win prob (posterior) vs 67.7% implied at -210 yields +22 EV

MONEYLINE

AS Roma

73%

82.6% posterior crushes 66.1% breakeven (exceeds by 16.5%) for +25 EV per $100 risked

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

58%

Serie A avg 2.6 goals/game; Roma control game as 83% fav limits Parma scoring (Pellegrino 0.24 G/M)

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior pegs Roma at 82.6% win prob matching devigged market but crushing vigged implieds (-195 ML 66.1% breakeven, +25 EV). Malen (0.73 G/M) exploits Parma's weak attack (Pellegrino 0.24 G/M); whales on Parma ($34k strong vol) but 51% conviction weak signal. Poor data (29% quality) and zero calibration cap at high edge, favor ML over juiced spread.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Mateo Pellegrino Parma

Under 0.5 goals 58%

8 goals in 34 matches (0.24 avg); low usage vs Roma defense as underdog

PROP ALERT

Mateo Pellegrino Parma

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

69 SOT season total low volume in 34 games; limited chances vs Roma

PROP ALERT

Emanuele Valeri Parma

Under 0.5 assists 55%

2 assists in 31 matches; minimal creative role in loss spot

PROP ALERT

Zion Suzuki Parma

Over 4.5 saves 57%

56 saves season; expects volume facing Roma attack (Malen 0.73 G/M)

PROP ALERT

Alessandro Circati Parma

Over 1.5 blocks 55%

High clearance volume (1202? metric); defensive load as underdog

PROP ALERT

Zion Suzuki Parma

Under 5.0 saves 56%

Model projects Roma dominance limits shots

PROP ALERT

Emanuele Valeri Parma

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 58%

Low volume creator; underdog script

PROP ALERT

Mateo Pellegrino Parma

Under 2.0 shots_on_goal 57%

Season shots low vs elite defense

PROP ALERT

Donyell Malen AS Roma

Over 0.5 goals 60%

11 goals in 15 matches; high usage vs weak Parma backline

PROP ALERT

Donyell Malen AS Roma

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

60 SOT season; volume shooter in favorable matchup

PROP ALERT

Matìas Soulè AS Roma

Over 0.5 assists 56%

5 assists in 30; secondary creator boosts in win script

PROP ALERT

Mile Svilar AS Roma

Under 2.5 saves 58%

101 saves but low volume expected as heavy favorite

PROP ALERT

Bryan Cristante AS Roma

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Midfielder low shot volume (1580 metric mins played)

PROP ALERT

Donyell Malen AS Roma

Over 2.0 shots_on_goal 57%

Consistent shooter; Parma vulnerable

PROP ALERT

Matìas Soulè AS Roma

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

High involvement in attack

PROP ALERT

Mile Svilar AS Roma

Under 3.0 saves 59%

Roma possession dominance caps shots faced

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