Aston Villa at Burnley

EPL May 10, 2026 01:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

70% Strong

SPREAD

Aston Villa

-0.5

Posterior implies ~75% cover prob for -0.5 (win prob 81% adj for draws); +EV vs Market Consensus spread fair 47.3% away cover.

Ω Bottom Line

AVL 81% posterior ML at -170 (+28.6 EV) beats vigged 63% & Pinnacle fair 71%; Kalshi 82.5% confirms

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Aston Villa

Line: -0.5

70%

Posterior implies ~75% cover prob for -0.5 (win prob 81% adj for draws); +EV vs Market Consensus spread fair 47.3% away cover.

MONEYLINE

Aston Villa

79%

calibrated 81% away win matches de-vig market prior but crushes vigged 63% implied; breakeven 63% exceeded by 18%.

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

57%

EPL avg ~2.7 goals but 2.5 total low; Market Consensus fair neutral 50.2% under, historical totals losing (47.4% Lean tier).

Game Analysis

De-vigged Bayesian posterior pegs Aston Villa win prob at 81% vs raw -170 implied 62.9%; Pinnacle fair 71% and Kalshi 83% confirm retail +EV on away ML/spread. No situational edges or injuries but cross-market away consensus holds despite poor data (35% quality). Totals neutral at 2.5 with historical underperformance; lean under conservatively.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Ollie Watkins Aston Villa

Over 0.5 goals 58%

Season 11 goals/34 matches (0.32 avg) but star usage vs weak Burnley; model proj 0.6 (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Ollie Watkins Aston Villa

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

High volume striker, matchup favors shots; model proj 1.9 (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Morgan Rogers Aston Villa

Under 0.5 assists 59%

5 assists/35 matches low; model proj 0.3 (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Emiliano Martínez Aston Villa

Over 2.5 saves 57%

Elite GK, Burnley attack weak; model proj 3.2 (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Ezri Konsa Aston Villa

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Defender low shots; model proj 0.3 (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Morgan Rogers Aston Villa

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 56%

Creative mid, recent form; model proj 1.3 (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Ollie Watkins Aston Villa

Under 2.5 shots_on_target 60%

Burnley D stout; model proj 2.1 < line (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Emiliano Martínez Aston Villa

Under 3.5 saves 55%

AVL control limits shots; model proj 2.9 (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Zian Flemming Burnley

Under 0.5 goals 58%

9 goals/26 low vs AVL D; model proj 0.2 (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Quilindschy Hartman Burnley

Under 0.5 assists 59%

5/21 low; model proj 0.2 (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Jaidon Anthony Burnley

Over 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Winger volume; model proj 0.8 (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Martin Dúbravka Burnley

Over 3.0 saves 57%

AVL attack forces saves; model proj 3.6 (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Maxime Estève Burnley

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 55%

Defender minimal; model proj 0.2 (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Zian Flemming Burnley

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 60%

AVL D limits; model proj 0.7 (omega_model)

PROP ALERT

Martin Dúbravka Burnley

Under 4.0 saves 56%

AVL dominance; model proj 3.1 (omega_model)

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