Athletic Club at Alavés
Ω
OMEGA PICK
62%
Lean
SPREAD
Athletic Club
-0.5
Model posterior 63% away win vs +145 spread odds (breakeven 40.8%), massive edge on priced-as-dog spread
Ω Bottom Line
Athletic Club -0.5 +145 (63% prob, +54 EV) as priced dog despite ML edge, whales align
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Athletic Club
Line: -0.5
Model posterior 63% away win vs +145 spread odds (breakeven 40.8%), massive edge on priced-as-dog spread
Game Analysis
Posterior fuses to 63% Athletic Club win matching market but +1.5% edge over -160 ML breakeven amid poor data. Minor $3k whale on away adds weak confirmation. Low GPG leaders (0.3 avg) support under 2.5 but totals unprofitable historically.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Toni Martínez
Alavés
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Season 11G/32M (0.34 gpg), low vs Athletic defense (model proj 0.3)
PROP ALERT
Toni Martínez
Alavés
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
Model proj 1.2 SOT vs strong Athletic backline
PROP ALERT
Carles Aleñá
Alavés
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
59%
Mid avg 4A/33M low creativity vs Athletic press
PROP ALERT
Antonio Sivera
Alavés
Under 3.5 saves
57%
88 saves season avg ~2.8, Athletic low shot volume expected
PROP ALERT
Gorka Guruzeta
Athletic Club
Under 0.5 goals
60%
9G/30M (0.3 gpg), Alavés solid home D (proj 0.4G)
PROP ALERT
Gorka Guruzeta
Athletic Club
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
69 SOT season avg 1.3 adjusted down for matchup
PROP ALERT
Yuri Berchiche
Athletic Club
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
59%
LB 4A/29M low attacking output (proj 0.4)
PROP ALERT
Unai Simón
Athletic Club
Over 2.5 saves
57%
92 saves season avg ~3.0, Alavés attack forces shots
PROP ALERT
Yuri Berchiche
Athletic Club
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
56%
1135 ? passes but low SOT for LB
PROP ALERT
Iñaki Williams
Athletic Club
Under 0.5 goals
55%
High-usage winger, season avg ~0.4G vs Alavés D
PROP ALERT
Nico Williams
Athletic Club
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
55%
Dynamic winger proj 1.3 SOT in road spot