Athletic Club at Getafe
Ω
OMEGA PICK
59%
Lean
SPREAD
Athletic Club
-0.5
Athletic Club superior squad depth and H2H edge vs Getafe's home underperformance
Ω Bottom Line
Athletic Club ML +150 (64% model vs 60% implied, +4.8 EV) exploits Getafe home pricing inefficiency
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Athletic Club
Line: -0.5
Athletic Club superior squad depth and H2H edge vs Getafe's home underperformance
MONEYLINE
Athletic Club
Model prob 64% vs 60% implied; +150 offers value on road favorite in low-scoring LaLiga spot
TOTAL
under
Line: 1.5
LaLiga avg 2.4 goals/game; Getafe home games trend under 1.5 at 62% clip historically
Game Analysis
ATH edges Getafe via superior xG (1.42 vs 0.92) projecting 1.6-1.0; +170 ML undervalued at 58% prob (breakeven 37%). Getafe home games avg 1.9 total with 68% under 2.5 (N=29). Spread juice kills value but CLV projects line hold. Props cap 62% max on unvalidated 2025-26 rosters.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Gorka Guruzeta
Athletic Club
Under 0.5 goals
60%
6 goals in 26 matches = 0.23/G; Getafe ranks top-8 defense vs forwards
PROP ALERT
Iñaki Williams
Athletic Club
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
Assists leader but Getafe compact defense limits SOT; model proj 1.2
PROP ALERT
Mauro Arambarri
Getafe
Under 0.5 goals
62%
6 goals/29 matches vs Athletic top defense; rarely scores at home
PROP ALERT
Luis Milla
Getafe
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
59%
Midfielder assist focus (9 in 28); low volume vs Athletic press
PROP ALERT
Oihan Sancet
Athletic Club
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
57%
High usage AM; Getafe concedes 1.1 SOT/central mids per game
PROP ALERT
Nico Williams
Athletic Club
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
56%
Wing threat but Getafe wings defended tightly; proj 0.8
PROP ALERT
Borja Mayoral
Getafe
Under 0.5 goals
61%
Getafe striker struggles vs top LaLiga defenses like Athletic
PROP ALERT
Dani Vivian
Athletic Club
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
60%
CB rarely shoots; set-piece threat minimal here
PROP ALERT
Mason Greenwood
Getafe
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
Athletic flanks lock down wingers; home SOT avg down 20%
PROP ALERT
Unai Simon
Athletic Club
Under 2.5 saves
57%
Getafe low shot volume (10.2/game); clean sheet likely
PROP ALERT
David Soria
Getafe
Over 3.0 saves
59%
Athletic generates 12.1 shots/away; Soria faces volume
PROP ALERT
Ander Herrera
Athletic Club
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
56%
DM role limits shots vs Getafe midfield