Athletics at New York Yankees

MLB April 09, 2026 05:35 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Athletics

0.0

MC sims show Athletics cover +0.0 in 46.5% of 10k sims vs 50% breakeven; ELO 5.8pt Yankees edge diluted by Poisson to neutral spread.

Ω Bottom Line

Athletics +155 ML (46.5% MC win prob vs 39% breakeven): Yankees rotation gutted (Cole/Rodon IL), model 7% edge

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Athletics

55%

MC sims show Athletics cover +0.0 in 46.5% of 10k sims vs 50% breakeven; ELO 5.8pt Yankees edge diluted by Poisson to neutral spread.

MONEYLINE

Athletics

57%

46.5% MC win prob vs +155 implies 39.2% breakeven (7.3% edge); Yankees depleted rotation (Cole/Rodon IL) caps favorite pricing.

Game Analysis

Omega spread +2.2 edge vs market -2.2 but MC even 46.3% home cover; sharp action massive at 17.3% spread divergence + RLM signals Yankees cover value especially Bovada +180 (+45% EV). ML -240 juiced beyond -250 filter despite ELO edge. Total market 8 vs model 24 absurd but totals losing calibration caps confidence.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 0.5 home_runs 58%

Judge leads team with 3 HR early; model projects 0.7 vs Athletics SP (Springs 2.38 ERA). Usage high.

PROP ALERT

Giancarlo Stanton New York Yankees

Over 0.5 hits 56%

Stanton .394 BA early season; projects 1.1 hits vs lefty Springs.

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

Rice leads with 11 RBI early; lineup protection boosts projection to 0.8.

PROP ALERT

Shea Langeliers Athletics

Under 0.5 home_runs 57%

Langeliers 5 HR but faces Yankees pen (Schlittler 0.00 ERA); projects 0.3.

PROP ALERT

Max Muncy Athletics

Over 0.5 hits 55%

.314 BA early; projects 0.9 hits vs Yankees depleted rotation.

PROP ALERT

Shea Langeliers Athletics

Under 0.5 rbis 56%

8 RBI but weak lineup support projects 0.4 vs Yankees staff.

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Yankees

Over 4.5 strikeouts 59%

0.00 ERA, 15 K early; projects 5.2 vs Athletics order.

PROP ALERT

Jeffrey Springs Athletics

Under 4.5 strikeouts 55%

2.38 ERA but Yankees power projects 3.8 K.

PROP ALERT

Max Fried New York Yankees

Over 5.5 strikeouts 58%

2 wins early; projects 6.0 vs Athletics.

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 1.5 total_bases 60%

Power profile projects 1.8 TB vs Springs.

PROP ALERT

Shea Langeliers Athletics

Under 0.5 hits 55%

Projects 0.6 hits vs Schlittler/Fried.

PROP ALERT

Giancarlo Stanton New York Yankees

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

.394 BA projects 1.7 TB.

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