Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies

MLB May 06, 2026 10:40 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

62% Lean

SPREAD

Athletics

1.5

OMEGA spread and model margin +0.4 (home covers +0 at 48.5%) vs market PHI -1.5 implies 60%+ cover prob

Ω Bottom Line

20-run model proj vs 8.5 total (+15pp over edge), Athletics value vs juiced PHI -175/1.5 RL

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Athletics

Line: 1.5

62%

OMEGA spread and model margin +0.4 (home covers +0 at 48.5%) vs market PHI -1.5 implies 60%+ cover prob

MONEYLINE

Athletics

60%

calibrated 40% away vs devigged market 36.4% (+3.6pp); MC away win 42.7%

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.5

60%

calibrated over posterior 65.2% (+15.2pp edge); omega/MC project 20-22 runs vs 8.5 line

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior holds Phillies at 59.5% but extreme $627k whale volume (institutional, 83% conf) boosts to 61% our prob for +EV ML. Injuries ding Phillies arms more (-9.7% vs -6.4%) but model run line edge at 55% cover. Totals lean over on compromised pitching; all conf reduced on missing pitchers/MC.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1.5 total_bases 60%

Model projection 2.0 TB, strong season leader 23 RBI, home matchup boost

PROP ALERT

Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies

Over 0.5 home_runs 55%

Model proj 0.6 HR, power leader 11 HR, high total favors HR

PROP ALERT

Cristopher Sanchez Philadelphia Phillies

Over 5.5 strikeouts 58%

Model proj 6.5 K, elite 2.42 ERA/60 IP leader

PROP ALERT

Brandon Marsh Philadelphia Phillies

Under 1.5 hits 57%

Model proj 1.0 H, .322 BA but tough Athletics matchup

PROP ALERT

Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies

Over 0.5 rbis 59%

Model proj 1.0 RBI, team leader 23 RBI high usage

PROP ALERT

Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies

Over 0.5 hits 56%

Model proj 1.1 H, leadoff power profile

PROP ALERT

Cristopher Sanchez Philadelphia Phillies

Under 4.5 hits 55%

Model proj 4.2 H allowed, strong recent form

PROP ALERT

Brandon Marsh Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1.0 total_bases 58%

Model proj 1.5 TB, hot .322 BA

PROP ALERT

Shea Langeliers Athletics

Over 0.5 hits 60%

Model proj 1.1 H, .336 BA leader despite paternity

PROP ALERT

Shea Langeliers Athletics

Over 0.5 home_runs 55%

Model proj 0.6 HR, 10 HR leader high total game

PROP ALERT

Tyler Soderstrom Athletics

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

Model proj 0.9 RBI, 19 RBI leader usage up

PROP ALERT

Aaron Civale Athletics

Over 4.5 strikeouts 59%

Model proj 5.3 K, 2.95 ERA solid vs Phillies

PROP ALERT

Shea Langeliers Athletics

Over 1.5 total_bases 58%

Model proj 1.8 TB, top BA/HR combo

PROP ALERT

Tyler Soderstrom Athletics

Over 0.5 hits 56%

Model proj 1.0 H, RBI producer in high total

PROP ALERT

Aaron Civale Athletics

Under 5.5 hits 55%

Model proj 5.2 H allowed, good form

PROP ALERT

Max Muncy Athletics

Under 1.0 total_bases 55%

Model proj 0.8 TB, IL impact cascade

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