Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies

MLB May 07, 2026 10:40 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Philadelphia Phillies

-1.5

+46.8% EV on Phillies -1.5 per Market Consensus de-vigged fair value (38.1% cover prob vs retail pricing)

Ω Bottom Line

Phils ML 59% w/ extreme whales + sharp spread EV; over 9.0 62% posterior projects 20 runs vs market total

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Philadelphia Phillies

Line: -1.5

60%

+46.8% EV on Phillies -1.5 per Market Consensus de-vigged fair value (38.1% cover prob vs retail pricing)

MONEYLINE

Philadelphia Phillies

59%

calibrated 58.7% vs 57.6% implied (+1.1pp edge fused from team strength/scoring model)

TOTAL

over

Line: 9.0

62%

Over posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp), Omega/MC project 20-22 runs (10.2-9.8 MC avg)

Game Analysis

Bayesian fuses to exact market 65.3% Phillies win prob (0% edge), but 15.5% sharp spread divergence + extreme $667k whales (institutional tier) on home boost Phillies -2.2 to +3.2 EV despite Pinnacle fair 45.1% cover. Injuries hit Phillies harder (-9.7% vs -5.5% away), but no pitchers limits spot quality. PM 54.5% home sees more Athletics value, slight contrarian flag; under 9.0 +1.8 EV from 51.2% fair.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies

Over 0.5 hits 58%

RBI leader (23), .300+ BA vs weak Athletics staff

PROP ALERT

Kyle Schwarber Philadelphia Phillies

Over 0.5 home_runs 55%

Team HR leader (11), power surge potential in high-total spot

PROP ALERT

Brandon Marsh Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

BA leader (.336), favorable matchup vs Athletics arms

PROP ALERT

Cristopher Sanchez Philadelphia Phillies

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

ERA leader 2.42 + 60 K, Oakland high-K team

PROP ALERT

Trea Turner Philadelphia Phillies

Over 1.0 hits 56%

Consistent contact hitter, rest advantage

PROP ALERT

Nick Castellanos Philadelphia Phillies

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

Middle order protection from Harper/Schwarber

PROP ALERT

Alec Bohm Philadelphia Phillies

Under 1.5 total_bases 57%

Recent slump vs righties, injury cascade

PROP ALERT

J.T. Realmuto Philadelphia Phillies

Over 0.5 hits 58%

Strong home splits, high usage

PROP ALERT

Shea Langeliers Oakland Athletics

Over 0.5 hits 56%

BA leader .336 despite paternity risk, PHI weak vs RHB

PROP ALERT

Tyler Soderstrom Oakland Athletics

Over 0.5 rbis 55%

Team RBI leader (20), cleanup spot usage boost

PROP ALERT

Aaron Civale Oakland Athletics

Over 4.5 strikeouts 59%

2.95 ERA leader, PHI high strikeout rate

PROP ALERT

Brent Rooker Oakland Athletics

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

Power bat in projected high-total game

PROP ALERT

JJ Bleday Oakland Athletics

Over 0.5 hits 55%

Leadoff contact, PHI starter vulnerable

PROP ALERT

Zack Gelof Oakland Athletics

Under 1.0 total_bases 56%

Road struggles vs lefties like Sanchez

PROP ALERT

Lawrence Butler Oakland Athletics

Over 0.5 home_runs 55%

Upside power in hitter-friendly projection

PROP ALERT

Jacob Wilson Oakland Athletics

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Prospect hot streak, high contact

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