Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB May 09, 2026 02:10 AM ET ● LIVE

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Los Angeles Dodgers

-1.5

+54.5% EV home spread per Market Consensus devig vs retail; sharp divergence 13.6%

Ω Bottom Line

LAD ML +4.5 EV (57% posterior vs 54.5% mkt) + extreme whales/sharp home RL despite Sale edge, model div low

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Los Angeles Dodgers

Line: -1.5

60%

+54.5% EV home spread per Market Consensus devig vs retail; sharp divergence 13.6%

MONEYLINE

Los Angeles Dodgers

64%

calibrated 57% vs market 54.5% (+2.5pp edge); whale extreme home + sharp ML moderate away but spread strong home

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.0

60%

calibrated over posterior 65.2% vs 50% market (+15.2pp); MC total ~20 vs market 8

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion posterior 57.8% Dodgers win (+1.8pp edge vs 56% Kalshi prior) with extreme $436k whale volume on home. MC 10k sims project 10.2-9.8 (under 22.5 at 71.6%, HIGH conf) and home covers 0.0 at 49%. Equal injuries (Acuna/Betts out), no pitchers; VERY_LOW model agreement caps conviction.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 6.5 strikeouts 62%

Ohtani avg 7.8 K/9 vs ATL weak vs LHB; Sale matchup neutralizes but usage high

PROP ALERT

Max Muncy Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

Muncy 9 HR season but .220 vs LHP like Sale; cool Dodger Stadium suppresses

PROP ALERT

Andy Pages Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 1.0 hits 60%

.336 BA leader; Sale allows 8.5 H/9 to RHB

PROP ALERT

Emmet Sheehan Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 4.5 strikeouts 55%

5.23 ERA, ATL top-10 K%; poor recent form

PROP ALERT

Chris Sale Atlanta Braves

Over 7.5 strikeouts 68%

2.14 ERA, 11+ K/9; LAD bottom-12 vs LHP, Sheehan weak no cascade

PROP ALERT

Ozzie Albies Atlanta Braves

Over 0.5 hits 59%

.322 BA; Sheehan 9.5 H/9 allowed

PROP ALERT

Matt Olson Atlanta Braves

Under 0.5 home_runs 61%

13 HR but Dodger Stadium + Sheehan suppresses flyballs; 64F cool

PROP ALERT

Matt Olson Atlanta Braves

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

33 RBI leader; LAD pen weak post-Sheehan

PROP ALERT

Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 1.5 total_bases 63%

High usage post-Betts IL; Sale 1.05 WHIP but Ohtani .320 vs LHP

PROP ALERT

Ozzie Albies Atlanta Braves

Over 1.0 total_bases 58%

Recent form strong vs poor Sheehan

PROP ALERT

Max Muncy Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 0.5 rbis 56%

Sale elite vs LHB; injury context low RBI opps

PROP ALERT

Andy Pages Los Angeles Dodgers

Under 1.5 total_bases 55%

Sale suppresses RHB hard contact

PROP ALERT

Matt Olson Atlanta Braves

Over 0.5 hits 60%

Sheehan high contact allowed

PROP ALERT

Emmet Sheehan Los Angeles Dodgers

Over 3.5 earned_runs 59%

5.23 ERA vs ATL top offense

PROP ALERT

Chris Sale Atlanta Braves

Under 4.5 hits_allowed 64%

LAD depleted lineup (Betts IL), 6.5 H/9

PROP ALERT

Ozzie Albies Atlanta Braves

Over 0.5 runs_scored 57%

Leadoff vs weak Sheehan

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