Atlético Madrid at Osasuna
Ω
OMEGA PICK
57%
Lean
SPREAD
Osasuna
-0.5
Whale steam on home side pushes prob to 42% vs 41.7% implied at +140
Ω Bottom Line
Osasuna +155 home dog: strong whale steam ($89k, 96%) yields +7.1 EV vs market
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Osasuna
Line: -0.5
Whale steam on home side pushes prob to 42% vs 41.7% implied at +140
MONEYLINE
Osasuna
Strong whale signal ($89k volume, 96% conviction) creates 2.8pp edge over 39.2% market
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
Cool 51F Pamplona weather + low wind suppresses scoring in LALIGA spot
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion posterior pegs Atlético win at 58.3%, matching devigged market with 0% edge but -180 juice yields -9.3 EV/$100. Strong whale consensus on Osasuna ($89k vol, 96% conf, strong tier) adds contrarian Tier 2 signal (+3 conf potential) but insufficient vs Tier 1 quant anchor. Under 2.5 offers slim +EV (2.1) in low-scoring projected matchup (Atlético xGA elite, Osasuna home unders 55%).
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Ante Budimir
Osasuna
Over 0.5 goals
60%
17 goals in 34 matches (0.50 gpg), model proj 0.55 vs Oblak in road spot (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Rubén García
Osasuna
Under 0.5 assists
58%
5 assists in 32 matches, low usage vs Atlético press (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Sergio Herrera
Osasuna
Under 3.5 saves
57%
110 saves in 34 (~3.2 spg), Atlético low shots expected (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Ante Budimir
Osasuna
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
59%
88 SOT season, home boost vs road GK (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Alexander Sørloth
Atlético Madrid
Under 0.5 goals
60%
12 goals in 32 (0.38 gpg), tough Osasuna D at El Sadar (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Giuliano Simeone
Atlético Madrid
Under 0.5 assists
58%
6 assists in 29, low volume in road underdog spot (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Jan Oblak
Atlético Madrid
Over 2.5 saves
59%
64 saves season, Osasuna home attack pushes shots (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Alexander Sørloth
Atlético Madrid
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
64 SOT, suppressed by Osasuna D (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Koke
Atlético Madrid
Under 0.5 assists
56%
Midfield general low assist rate in tight games (model projection)
PROP ALERT
Alejandro Catena
Osasuna
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
55%
Defender low volume vs Atlético attack (model projection)