Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Ω
OMEGA PICK
65%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
New York Yankees
-1.5
Strong sharp divergence 15.2% favoring home RL + +45.5% EV vs Market Consensus fair value
Ω Bottom Line
NYY RL +15.2% sharp edge + extreme $908k whales home (74% conf) despite 0% Bayesian ML edge
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
New York Yankees
Line: -1.5
Strong sharp divergence 15.2% favoring home RL + +45.5% EV vs Market Consensus fair value
Game Analysis
Retail spread -175 on Yankees -1.5 implies 64% cover but Pinnacle fair only 43.4% (56.6% BAL cover) for +38 EV on Orioles +1.5 +145. Yankees ML posterior dead even at 63.6% with extreme $908k whales (institutional, 74% conf) and strong sharp spread home signal offsetting. Total slight over edge at 51.8% fair; multiple IL pitchers (Rodon, Stanton, Bradish) but poor injury data quality. Degraded signals cap at leans.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 0.5 home_runs
58%
Season HR leader (12), model projection vs BAL SP matchup
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 2.5 total_bases
60%
Model projection: high-usage vs BAL pitching
PROP ALERT
Cam Schlittler
New York Yankees
Over 6.5 strikeouts
59%
Season K leader (49), low 1.51 ERA model projection vs BAL
PROP ALERT
Gunnar Henderson
Baltimore Orioles
Under 0.5 home_runs
57%
Season 9 HR, model under vs NYY pitching
PROP ALERT
Jeremiah Jackson
Baltimore Orioles
Under 0.5 rbis
56%
Season 24 RBI but road under projection
PROP ALERT
Kyle Bradish
Baltimore Orioles
Over 5.0 strikeouts
59%
Model projection vs NYY lineup despite 4.20 ERA