Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees

MLB May 02, 2026 05:35 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Baltimore Orioles

1.5

Market Consensus fair away cover 57.8% vs retail implied ~50%; model margin 0.0 favors +1.5 cover

Ω Bottom Line

Model totals 22.5 vs 8.5 line (+15.2pp over edge, +24.5 EV); away +1.5 on sharp retail misprice

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Baltimore Orioles

Line: 1.5

60%

Market Consensus fair away cover 57.8% vs retail implied ~50%; model margin 0.0 favors +1.5 cover

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.5

60%

Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% market; Omega 22.5 + model 20.0 projected

Game Analysis

Yankees ML posterior flat at 63.9% with zero edge but extreme whale volume $704k home overrides weak sharp away ML. Spread sharp signal strong 15.2% home + +45.5% EV vs Pinnacle fair (away favored 56.6%). Injuries net +1.9% home; totals marginal over fair value but historically losing.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

Model projection: season 12 HR pace regresses vs strong Orioles staff remnant; injury cascade limits RBI spots

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Over 1.5 hits 57%

Model projection: high-usage leader in depleted lineup (Stanton/Volpe out boosts PA)

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 0.5 hits 59%

Model projection: .330 BA leader thrives in Yankee Stadium vs avg Orioles arms

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Yankees

Over 5.5 strikeouts 56%

Model projection: 1.51 ERA dominates high-contact Orioles (no ace pitcher listed)

PROP ALERT

Max Fried New York Yankees

Over 4.5 strikeouts 55%

Model projection: 4 wins pace, favorable matchup vs injured BAL staff

PROP ALERT

Ben Rice New York Yankees

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

Model projection: 26 RBI leader in cleanup role with Stanton out

PROP ALERT

Cam Schlittler New York Yankees

Under 5.5 strikeouts 55%

Model projection: 49 K total low IP avg, BAL contact hitters

PROP ALERT

Aaron Judge New York Yankees

Under 2.5 total_bases 56%

Model projection: power regresses in high-total spot

PROP ALERT

Gunnar Henderson Baltimore Orioles

Under 0.5 home_runs 58%

Model projection: 9 HR pace, Yankee Stadium suppresses vs Schlittler 1.51 ERA

PROP ALERT

Gunnar Henderson Baltimore Orioles

Under 1.5 hits 57%

Model projection: Injuries (Crouse/Gillies) limit lineup protection

PROP ALERT

Taylor Ward Baltimore Orioles

Over 0.5 hits 59%

Model projection: .294 BA leadoff in high-total game

PROP ALERT

Shane Baz Baltimore Orioles

Under 4.5 strikeouts 56%

Model projection: 4.50 ERA vs Yankees power (Rice/Judge hot)

PROP ALERT

Jeremiah Jackson Baltimore Orioles

Under 0.5 rbis 55%

Model projection: 24 RBI secondary role, low usage

PROP ALERT

Taylor Ward Baltimore Orioles

Over 1.5 total_bases 57%

Model projection: Contact hitter benefits from inflated total

PROP ALERT

Shane Baz Baltimore Orioles

Over 5.5 strikeouts 55%

Model projection: Volume upside vs depleted NYY injuries

PROP ALERT

Gunnar Henderson Baltimore Orioles

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

Model projection: Power threat in Yankee Stadium

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