Baltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
Ω
OMEGA PICK
56%
Lean
SPREAD
Baltimore Orioles
2.2
Posterior 56.3% Orioles cover +2.2 vs market 50% (+6.3pp edge); OMEGA spread vs market -2.2
Ω Bottom Line
Orioles +2.2 (56% cover +6pp edge, omega even) + Over 8.5 (65% +15pp, model totals 22.5 >> market)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Baltimore Orioles
Line: 2.2
Posterior 56.3% Orioles cover +2.2 vs market 50% (+6.3pp edge); OMEGA spread vs market -2.2
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.5
Posterior 65.2% over 8.5 vs market 50% (+15.2pp); OMEGA total vs market 8.5
Game Analysis
Sharp money targets Yankees -2.2 spread with 15.4% edge and +46.5% EV at Bovada vs Pinnacle fair (home cover 43.7% undervalued). Extreme whale volume $563k (82% home, institutional tier) aligns with net injury edge (+1.9% home). ML breakeven exact posterior 63.9% fails value filter; totals neutral but over fair 51.5% in no-pitcher data spot.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 0.5 home_runs
58%
HR leader with 12; model projects 0.7 vs line in hitter-friendly spot
PROP ALERT
Aaron Judge
New York Yankees
Over 2.5 total_bases
60%
High usage power hitter projects 3.2 total bases
PROP ALERT
Ben Rice
New York Yankees
Under 1.5 hits
55%
Model .327 avg regresses to 1.2 hits vs tough matchup
PROP ALERT
Cam Schlittler
New York Yankees
Over 5.5 strikeouts
56%
49 K leader, 1.51 ERA projects 6.1 vs Orioles
PROP ALERT
Gunnar Henderson
Baltimore Orioles
Over 0.5 home_runs
57%
9 HR leader projects 0.6 in model sims
PROP ALERT
Gunnar Henderson
Baltimore Orioles
Over 1.5 hits
59%
High usage SS projects over vs Yankees staff
PROP ALERT
Shane Baz
Baltimore Orioles
Over 4.5 strikeouts
57%
4.50 ERA but 5.2 K projection vs Yankees
PROP ALERT
Gunnar Henderson
Baltimore Orioles
Over 2.0 total_bases
60%
Power/speed projects 2.5+ bases