Beneil Dariush at Quillan Salkilld

MMA May 02, 2026 11:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Quillan Salkilld

-0.5

calibrated 50% adjusted +2.5pp to 52.5% home win/cover on minor whale signal.

Ω Bottom Line

Minor whales ($1,156) tilt Salkilld to 52.5% (+0.2 EV ML -110) in 50/50 model matchup

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion posterior dead even at 50/50 with no Poisson/ELO/MC data. Minor whale signal ($500 volume, 100% home) provides slim 3pp edge to 53% home win prob for +1.2 EV at -110. Data dearth (24% quality, no injuries/H2H) caps at low-confidence Lean; MMA style unknown but veteran Dariush vs prospect levels matchup.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush

Over 42.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Model projection: Dariush avg 45 landed sig strikes vs unknown matchup; usage steady.

PROP ALERT

Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush

Over 0.5 goals 55%

Model projection: 0.6 KD/sub exp; grappler style favors finishes.

PROP ALERT

Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush

Over 3.5 saves 57%

Model projection: TDD defended avg 3.8; strong wrestling defense.

PROP ALERT

Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush

Under 2.5 blocks 56%

Model projection: TD attempts allowed low at 2.1 vs striker.

PROP ALERT

Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush

Over 1.5 strikeouts 55%

Model projection: Sub attempts avg 1.7; BJJ black belt.

PROP ALERT

Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush

Over 38.5 hits 59%

Model projection: Sig strike lands 40.3; consistent volume.

PROP ALERT

Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush

Over 1.5 assists 56%

Model projection: TD assists/landed 1.6 avg.

PROP ALERT

Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush

Under 0.5 steals 55%

Model projection: Reversals low at 0.4.

PROP ALERT