Bologna at Cremonese
Ω
OMEGA PICK
64%
Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Bologna
-0.5
Bologna's superior 12-6-12 record vs Cremonese 6-9-15 projects 58% win probability vs market 53.5% implied
Ω Bottom Line
Bologna 12-6-12 record edge vs Cremonese 6-9-15 (+4.5% prob edge at -115 ML, +3.2 EV)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Bologna
Line: -0.5
Bologna's superior 12-6-12 record vs Cremonese 6-9-15 projects 58% win probability vs market 53.5% implied
MONEYLINE
Bologna
Bologna better form (12W) vs Cremonese struggles (6W); model 58% exceeds -115 breakeven of 53.5% by 4.5%
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
Cremonese home games average low scoring; both teams low goal leaders (6-7G in 25+ matches)
Game Analysis
Bologna +105 ML undervalued at 58% model prob vs 51% implied—Orsolini (7G/28) leads attack vs promoted Cremonese fragile at +250. Spread -0.5 holds edge on quality gap, low leaders (max 7G) support under 2.5 in 2.45 Serie A avg environment. N=0 calibration caps conviction but tier data favors ML.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Riccardo Orsolini
Bologna
Over 0.5 goals
60%
Season 7G/28M; primary Bologna attacker vs Cremonese weak defense
PROP ALERT
Riccardo Orsolini
Bologna
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
High-volume shooter; model projects 1.8 vs Cremonese
PROP ALERT
Federico Bonazzoli
Cremonese
Under 0.5 goals
59%
6G/27M pace too low for consistent 0.5+; Bologna solid D
PROP ALERT
Jari Vandeputte
Cremonese
Under 0.5 assists
57%
4A/25M; low creativity vs Bologna containment
PROP ALERT
Nicolò Cambiaghi
Cremonese
Under 0.5 assists
56%
4A/24M limited vs Bologna's midfield control
PROP ALERT
Lewis Ferguson
Bologna
Over 0.5 shots_on_target
60%
Key midfielder; usage up in road games
PROP ALERT
Federico Bonazzoli
Cremonese
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
59%
Struggles for quality chances vs better sides
PROP ALERT
Jari Vandeputte
Cremonese
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
57%
Assist specialist, low shot volume