Bologna at Napoli

Serie A May 11, 2026 06:45 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Napoli

-0.5

64.9% posterior for home cover (-0.5 equivalent to ML win prob) but -195 juice requires 66.1% breakeven

Ω Bottom Line

Napoli ML -185 fair value (64.9% posterior = breakeven) with profitable ML calibration in Lean tier, 0 EV

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Napoli

Line: -0.5

60%

64.9% posterior for home cover (-0.5 equivalent to ML win prob) but -195 juice requires 66.1% breakeven

MONEYLINE

Napoli

62%

Posterior 64.9% exactly at -185 breakeven (64.9%); ML leans profitable in 55-67% tiers historically

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior fuses at 64.9% Napoli win matching market prior for zero edge; Napoli's 21-7-7 record supports home lean despite heavy juice. Poor data (29% signals) caps conviction at Lean tier where ML hits 61.5%. Totals avoided beyond minimal due to 48.7% historical WR.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Matteo Politano Napoli

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Model projection 0.3 goals; assists-focused role (5 in 32 matches) limits scoring volume

PROP ALERT

Stanislav Lobotka Napoli

Over 0.5 assists 55%

Model projection 0.6 assists; high minutes (1563) as key midfielder vs Bologna mid-table D

PROP ALERT

Khvicha Kvaratskhelia Napoli

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 60%

Model projection 2.0 SOT; star winger usage high in home games

PROP ALERT

Matteo Politano Napoli

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Model projection 1.4 SOT; consistent shooter in 32 matches played

PROP ALERT

Giovanni Di Lorenzo Napoli

Under 0.5 assists 56%

Model projection 0.2 assists; defensive RB role primary

PROP ALERT

Amir Rrahmani Napoli

Under 0.5 shots_on_goal 55%

Model projection 0.2 SOG; CB minimal attacking

PROP ALERT

Alex Meret Napoli

Over 2.5 saves 59%

Model projection 3.0 saves; Bologna attack projects moderate shots

PROP ALERT

Frank Anguissa Napoli

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 56%

Model projection 0.3 SOT; DM low volume

PROP ALERT

Riccardo Orsolini Bologna

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Model projection 0.3 goals; 8 goals in 33 matches avg 0.24 vs Napoli D

PROP ALERT

Nicolò Cambiaghi Bologna

Under 0.5 assists 57%

Model projection 0.3 assists; 4 in 28 matches low volume away

PROP ALERT

Riccardo Orsolini Bologna

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Model projection 1.2 SOT; 79 shots season but Napoli suppresses

PROP ALERT

Federico Ravaglia Bologna

Over 3.0 saves 59%

Model projection 3.5 saves; 50 saves noted, Napoli attack heavy

PROP ALERT

Jhon Lucumí Bologna

Under 0.5 shots_on_goal 55%

Model projection 0.3 SOG; defender (1356 minutes) rare shots

PROP ALERT

Dan Ndoye Bologna

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Model projection 0.2 goals; secondary attacker away

PROP ALERT

Lewis Ferguson Bologna

Under 0.5 assists 55%

Model projection 0.4 assists; mid usage limited vs Napoli

PROP ALERT

Santiago Castro Bologna

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Model projection 1.3 SOT; forward volume in road games

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