Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox
1.5
MC projects DET margin +0.5 (std 4.5), BOS +1.5 covers ~58%; OMEGA spread confirms even matchup
Ω Bottom Line
65% Bayesian over 7.0 (+24.5 EV) as models explode to 22.5 total vs tight market line
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox
Line: 1.5
MC projects DET margin +0.5 (std 4.5), BOS +1.5 covers ~58%; OMEGA spread confirms even matchup
TOTAL
over
Line: 7.0
calibrated over posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); omega/MC total 22.5 vs 7.0 line
Game Analysis
Omega line undervalues Tigers at +138 (our 55% win prob vs 42% implied) amid ELO regression signal on overperforming home side; MC confirms PK cover (47.8%, +0.2 margin) and under crush (74.7% at 22.5). Extreme whales on Red Sox (-3 conf) + injury edge to away offset by VERY_LOW model agreement (Bayesian 59.9% vs MC 47.8%). Degraded data caps at LEAN tier.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers
Over 6.5 strikeouts
60%
2.70 ERA leader, model projects 7.2 K vs BOS lineup (no matchup adj due to missing data)
PROP ALERT
Kerry Carpenter
Detroit Tigers
Under 1.5 hits
58%
Model projection 1.1 hits; low vs projected BOS pitching
PROP ALERT
Kevin McGonigle
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.5 hits
57%
.315 BA leader, model 1.7 hits projection
PROP ALERT
Kerry Carpenter
Detroit Tigers
Under 0.5 home_runs
59%
6 HR season total low power profile
PROP ALERT
Dillon Dingler
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.5 total_bases
55%
High RBI spot projects extra bases
PROP ALERT
Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers
Under 7.5 strikeouts
57%
BOS offense avg, injury cascade limits K upside
PROP ALERT
Willson Contreras
Boston Red Sox
Under 0.5 home_runs
60%
7 HR pace low in model projection
PROP ALERT
Ranger Suarez
Boston Red Sox
Over 5.5 strikeouts
55%
2.77 ERA despite DTD, DET weak vs LHP
PROP ALERT
Ranger Suarez
Boston Red Sox
Under 6.5 strikeouts
59%
DTD injury risk + DET contact hitters