Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers
Ω
OMEGA PICK
61%
Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox
1.5
model margin +0.2 home (std 4.6) implies 61% BOS +1.5 cover; sharp +EV +55.8% away spread + extreme whales $1.4M away.
Ω Bottom Line
Over 8.5 +24 EV (65% posterior vs 50% mkt, omega/MC 20+ total); BOS +1.5 sharp/whale edge vs juiced DET
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox
Line: 1.5
model margin +0.2 home (std 4.6) implies 61% BOS +1.5 cover; sharp +EV +55.8% away spread + extreme whales $1.4M away.
TOTAL
over
Line: 8.5
calibrated over posterior 65.2% (+15.2pp vs market 50%); OMEGA total + MC proj 19.6 crush 8.5.
Game Analysis
Omega spread at even vs market -1.5 home (1.5pt edge to Red Sox +1.5, 53.9% posterior cover); injuries hit Tigers harder (-10.6% vs -7.8%). Total market 7 crushed by Omega 22.5/MC 19.3 (65% over posterior). Extreme $741K whales +94% on Red Sox with Pinnacle/PM confirming away value.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers
Over 6.5 strikeouts
60%
Model proj 7.2 K (season leader 45, ERA 2.70 ace usage); matchup neutral, no confirmed opponent suppression. (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Kerry Carpenter
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.0 hits
58%
HR leader (6); model proj 1.1 hits vs neutral SP. (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Dillon Dingler
Detroit Tigers
Over 0.5 rbis
55%
RBI leader 25; lineup spot projects usage boost. (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Brant Hurter
Detroit Tigers
Over 3.5 strikeouts
57%
Saves leader 4, reliever K rate projects 4.0. (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Kevin McGonigle
Detroit Tigers
Over 1.5 total_bases
56%
.315 BA leader projects multi-hit potential. (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Gleyber Torres
Detroit Tigers
Over 0.5 hits
55%
Day-to-day but projected playable, avg usage. (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Kerry Carpenter
Detroit Tigers
Under 0.5 home_runs
59%
6 HR season but low per game rate 0.15 proj under. (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Tarik Skubal
Detroit Tigers
Under 6.5 strikeouts
55%
Variance in starts, BOS lineup projects fewer K. (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Wilyer Abreu
Boston Red Sox
Over 1.0 hits
59%
.297 BA leader proj 1.2 hits. (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Willson Contreras
Boston Red Sox
Over 0.5 rbis
58%
21 RBI leader projects cleanup spot usage. (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Ranger Suarez
Boston Red Sox
Over 5.5 strikeouts
57%
ERA 2.77 leader proj 6.0 K despite day-to-day. (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Willson Contreras
Boston Red Sox
Over 0.5 home_runs
56%
7 HR leader, power proj vs DET staff. (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Roman Anthony
Boston Red Sox
Over 1.0 total_bases
55%
Day-to-day prospect with lineup spot. (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Wilyer Abreu
Boston Red Sox
Under 0.5 rbis
60%
BA focus over RBI production proj under. (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Garrett Crochet
Boston Red Sox
Over 4.5 strikeouts
55%
Reliever proj if available post-IL. (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Ranger Suarez
Boston Red Sox
Under 5.5 strikeouts
56%
DET lineup K-weak, day-to-day risk. (model-generated)