Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers

MLB May 06, 2026 10:40 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Boston Red Sox

1.5

OMEGA spread and MC away covers 50.0% at even (HIGH edge conf) vs market Tigers -1.5 -120 implying ~54.5% home cover

Ω Bottom Line

BOS ML +100 w/ +3.2pp Bayesian edge + extreme $1.3M whales; Over 8 w/ 65% posterior & MC 9.7-10.2 proj (+20 EV)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Boston Red Sox

Line: 1.5

60%

OMEGA spread and MC away covers 50.0% at even (HIGH edge conf) vs market Tigers -1.5 -120 implying ~54.5% home cover

MONEYLINE

Boston Red Sox

55%

calibrated 48.7% away vs market 45.5% (+3.2pp edge); MC away win 50.0%; extreme whale volume $1.3M (103 wallets) on away

TOTAL

over

Line: 8.0

60%

calibrated 65.2% over 8.0 vs market 50% (+15.2pp); model 9.7-10.2, Omega 11.2-11.2-11.2 expected

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior gives Red Sox +2.2 56.3% cover (+6.3pp EV edge) as Omega even spread clashes with market -2.2 Tigers favoritism; whales $930k extreme on away confirms vs sharp home split. Total 7.0 is 15.5pts under Omega 22.5/MC 19.5 proj (65% over prob), no suppression factors. Injuries net even (-9% home/-9% away), model agreement low caps conf.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers

Over 5.5 strikeouts 60%

Model projection: elite 2.70 ERA/45K season avg vs BOS lineup w/ injuries; high pace expected

PROP ALERT

Kerry Carpenter Detroit Tigers

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Model projection: strong season contributor in high-total spot (Omega 22.5)

PROP ALERT

Dillon Dingler Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

Model projection: 26 RBI season pace boosted by projected 20+ runs

PROP ALERT

Kevin McGonigle Detroit Tigers

Over 1.5 total_bases 56%

Model projection: .308 BA leader thrives in hitter-friendly projected total

PROP ALERT

Riley Greene Detroit Tigers

Over 0.5 hits 59%

Model projection: key OF high usage in even matchup w/ BOS injuries

PROP ALERT

Colt Keith Detroit Tigers

Over 1.0 total_bases 55%

Model projection: young bat value in high-scoring sims

PROP ALERT

Javier Baez Detroit Tigers

Under 0.5 hits 58%

Model projection: career-low contact vs avg RHP matchup

PROP ALERT

Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers

Under 6.5 strikeouts 54%

Model projection: slight regression risk in high-total environment

PROP ALERT

Wilyer Abreu Boston Red Sox

Over 1.0 hits 59%

Model projection: .311 BA leader in favorable high-pace spot

PROP ALERT

Willson Contreras Boston Red Sox

Over 0.5 home_runs 56%

Model projection: 8 HR pace explodes in 20+ run sims

PROP ALERT

Willson Contreras Boston Red Sox

Over 0.5 rbis 57%

Model projection: 22 RBI leader w/ injury cascade usage boost

PROP ALERT

Ranger Suarez Boston Red Sox

Over 4.5 strikeouts 55%

Model projection: 2.77 ERA holds vs DET despite day-to-day

PROP ALERT

Rafael Devers Boston Red Sox

Over 1.5 total_bases 60%

Model projection: star 3B thrives in dome-neutral high total

PROP ALERT

Jarren Duran Boston Red Sox

Over 1.0 hits 58%

Model projection: leadoff speed in regression-favoring spot

PROP ALERT

Trevor Story Boston Red Sox

Under 1.0 total_bases 56%

Model projection: power limited vs potential Skubal

PROP ALERT

Masataka Yoshida Boston Red Sox

Over 0.5 hits 57%

Model projection: contact hitter value in high-volume game

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