Burnley at Leeds United
Ω
OMEGA PICK
57%
Lean
SPREAD
Leeds United
-1.5
70% ML posterior implies ~55% cover -1.5 via scoring model home edge vs poor Burnley away (4-8-22), +105 price beats 49% breakeven
Ω Bottom Line
Leeds -1.5 +105 value (+4.2 EV) as 70% ML posterior implies 55% cover vs Burnley road trash (4-8-22)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Leeds United
Line: -1.5
70% ML posterior implies ~55% cover -1.5 via scoring model home edge vs poor Burnley away (4-8-22), +105 price beats 49% breakeven
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
Burnley poor attack (4 wins away), Leeds mid-table defense, 45F cool weather limits pace vs EPL avg 2.8 goals
Game Analysis
Leeds 69.7% posterior matches -230 ML vigged breakeven; no Bayesian edge but +105 on -1.5 offers mild value vs Burnley's 4-8-22 away. Minor $4k whale on Burnley (low conf); cool 45F aids under 2.5. Poor data caps all at lean.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Burnley
Under 0.5 goals
58%
11 goals in 31 matches poor rate, Leeds home D solid (Struijk anchor), model projection 0.3
PROP ALERT
Zian Flemming
Burnley
Under 0.5 goals
56%
9 goals in 25, away struggles vs Leeds form, projection 0.2 goals
PROP ALERT
Jaidon Anthony
Burnley
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
Limited usage, tough Leeds matchup, projection 1.0
PROP ALERT
Quilindschy Hartman
Burnley
Under 0.5 assists
55%
5 assists in 20 low volume, projection 0.1
PROP ALERT
Maxime Estève
Burnley
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
59%
Defender minimal shots, projection 0.2
PROP ALERT
Brenden Aaronson
Leeds United
Over 0.5 assists
57%
5 assists in 33, home usage up vs weak Burnley, projection 0.6
PROP ALERT
Brenden Aaronson
Leeds United
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
56%
Active shooter home, Burnley poor D, projection 1.7