Carlos Prates at Jack Della Maddalena

MMA May 02, 2026 11:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Jack Della Maddalena

-0.5

Institutional whale steam ($1.37M volume) on home fighter exceeds 50% calibrated prior by 5pp.

Ω Bottom Line

Jack Della Maddalena ML (-110): +$1.37M extreme whale volume (institutional, 100% consensus) vs 50% prior (+5pp edge)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Jack Della Maddalena

Line: -0.5

55%

Institutional whale steam ($1.37M volume) on home fighter exceeds 50% calibrated prior by 5pp.

MONEYLINE

Jack Della Maddalena

55%

Extreme $1.37M whale volume (institutional tier, 100% home consensus) creates +2.6pp edge vs model line.

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

Prates/Della Maddalena striker styles project early finish under 2.5 rounds (MMA historical 58% for KO artists).

Game Analysis

Even 50/50 Bayesian posterior but $1.3M extreme whale volume (institutional, 100% home) creates +1.6% edge on Jack Della Maddalena ML/spread at model -110. Both welterweight KO machines (Della 12/17, Prates 11/12 wins by stoppage) project under 4.5 rounds. Poor data (24% signals) caps at lean tier post -7pt adjustment.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Jack Della Maddalena Jack Della Maddalena

Over 58.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Model projects higher striking volume vs Prates (striker matchup, home tilt).

PROP ALERT

Jack Della Maddalena Jack Della Maddalena

Over 0.5 goals 57%

Knockdown projection boosted by style edge (high KO rate).

PROP ALERT

Jack Della Maddalena Jack Della Maddalena

Over 2.5 saves 56%

Takedown defense projection in wrestler-light matchup.

PROP ALERT

Jack Della Maddalena Jack Della Maddalena

Over 85.5 points 59%

UFC fantasy points model projection (strikes + control).

PROP ALERT

Jack Della Maddalena Jack Della Maddalena

Over 65.5 hits 55%

Total strikes projection adjusted for pace.

PROP ALERT

Jack Della Maddalena Jack Della Maddalena

Under 25.5 blocks 56%

Lower absorption vs aggressive Prates.

PROP ALERT

Jack Della Maddalena Jack Della Maddalena

Under 0.5 strikeouts 57%

Low sub attempt projection (striker style).

PROP ALERT

Jack Della Maddalena Jack Della Maddalena

Over 1.5 steals 55%

Reversal projection in grappling exchanges.

PROP ALERT

Carlos Prates Carlos Prates

Under 52.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Model sees suppressed volume vs elite striker defense.

PROP ALERT

Carlos Prates Carlos Prates

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Knockdown regression in tough matchup.

PROP ALERT

Carlos Prates Carlos Prates

Under 1.5 saves 56%

Takedown def projection weakened by opponent wrestling.

PROP ALERT

Carlos Prates Carlos Prates

Under 78.5 points 57%

Fantasy points model lower due to underdog projection.

PROP ALERT

Carlos Prates Carlos Prates

Under 58.5 hits 55%

Total strikes capped by defensive matchup.

PROP ALERT

Carlos Prates Carlos Prates

Over 28.5 blocks 56%

Higher absorption vs volume striker.

PROP ALERT

Carlos Prates Carlos Prates

Under 0.5 strikeouts 55%

Minimal sub attempts projected.

PROP ALERT

Carlos Prates Carlos Prates

Under 1.0 steals 57%

Fewer reversals in striker-heavy fight.

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