CF Montréal at Atlanta United FC
Ω
OMEGA PICK
57%
Lean
SPREAD
CF Montréal
0.5
OMEGA spread at 0.0 vs market -0.5 gives 0.5pt edge to MTL +0.5
Ω Bottom Line
MTL +0.5 (0.5pt model edge) + Over 2.5 (+14.9pp posterior) on 7.5 OMEGA total vs 2.5 market
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
CF Montréal
Line: 0.5
OMEGA spread at 0.0 vs market -0.5 gives 0.5pt edge to MTL +0.5
TOTAL
over
Line: 2.5
Posterior 64.9% over 2.5 vs 50% implied; OMEGA total, MC proj 6.6, Dixon-Coles 12.8
Game Analysis
OMEGA Poisson+ELO at pick'em spread (0.0) vs market ATL -0.5, MC sims even margin (+0.0), Bayesian posterior 54% MTL ML win. Total crushed: market 2.5 vs OMEGA 7.5, Dixon-Coles 12.8 exp goals, over posterior 64.9% despite totals weakness. Atlanta turf pace +12% boosts scoring; poor data caps conf.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Alexey Miranchuk
Atlanta United FC
Over 0.5 goals
62%
Season leader 5 goals in 9 matches; model proj 0.6 vs line
PROP ALERT
Enea Mihaj
Atlanta United FC
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
58%
High usage midfielder; matchup favors shots
PROP ALERT
Steven Alzate
Atlanta United FC
Over 0.5 shots_on_target
60%
Projected 0.7 in high-pace turf game
PROP ALERT
Tristan Muyumba
Atlanta United FC
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
59%
Low shot volume defender/mid
PROP ALERT
Lucas Hoyos
Atlanta United FC
Over 2.5 saves
61%
GK proj 2.8 saves in expected 6.6 total game