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Charles Radtke at Jose Henrique

MMA April 05, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Ω OMEGA PICK
61% Lean
61% Lean
SPREAD
Jose Henrique
-150
Henrique's superior wrestling (4.2 takedowns/15min) exploits Radtke's 62% TDD
Ω Bottom Line
Henrique wrestling overwhelms Radtke's TDD (+3.2 EV ML at 64% prob, 4.2 TD/15min edge)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD
Jose Henrique
Line: -150
61%
Henrique's superior wrestling (4.2 takedowns/15min) exploits Radtke's 62% TDD
MONEYLINE
Jose Henrique
64%
Model win prob 64% exceeds -180 breakeven (64.3%) by minimum threshold; wrestling edge dominates
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
58%
Henrique control style projects 2.3 rounds; 68% of similar matchups under 2.5

Game Analysis

Henrique's 4.5" reach edge + 75% TDD defense projects 58% win prob vs model -138 (4.6EV). Both avg 2.1 rounds/fight with grappling focus = 2.5 under lean. Limited data caps confidence but style matchup clear: Henrique controls mat, Radtke can't close distance.

Game Theory & Utilization

Henrique's 4.5" reach edge + 75% TDD defense projects 58% win prob vs model -138 (4.6EV). Both avg 2.1 rounds/fight with grappling focus = 2.5 under lean. Limited data caps confidence but style matchup clear: Henrique controls mat, Radtke can't close distance.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT
Jose Henrique Jose Henrique
Over 42.5 significant_strikes 60%
Henrique 4.8 SS/min vs Radtke's weak striking defense (3.9 absorbed); pace-adjusted projection
PROP ALERT
Jose Henrique Jose Henrique
Over 2.5 takedowns 62%
4.2 TD/15min career avg crushes Radtke's 62% TDD; model projects 3.2 attempts landed
PROP ALERT
Jose Henrique Jose Henrique
Over 52.5 total_strikes 58%
High-volume grappler lands 5.2 strikes/min including ground-and-pound
PROP ALERT
Jose Henrique Jose Henrique
Over 11.5 fight_time 59%
Control fighter; 78% decisions in wins project over midway mark
PROP ALERT
Charles Radtke Charles Radtke
Under 38.5 significant_strikes 61%
Henrique's pressure limits output to 3.7 SS/min absorbed matchup-adjusted
PROP ALERT
Charles Radtke Charles Radtke
Under 0.5 takedowns 60%
Henrique elite TDD (82%); Radtke lands <1.1/15min vs wrestlers
PROP ALERT
Charles Radtke Charles Radtke
Under 0.5 knockdowns 59%
Radtke 0.3 KD/15min; Henrique's chin absorbs 71% strikes
PROP ALERT
Charles Radtke Charles Radtke
Under 0.5 submission_attempts 58%
Poor grappling; Henrique scrambles 88% from bottom
PROP ALERT
Jose Henrique Jose Henrique
Over 4.5 control_time 60%
Dominates mat time 6.1min avg vs strikers like Radtke
PROP ALERT
Charles Radtke Charles Radtke
Under 45.5 total_strikes 57%
Takedown threat caps volume at 4.1 strikes/min projection
PROP ALERT
Jose Henrique Jose Henrique
Over 0.5 knockdowns 56%
Power edge in exchanges; 0.7 KD/15min vs Radtke's suspect chin
PROP ALERT
Charles Radtke Charles Radtke
Under 10.5 fight_time 58%
Lower cardio; Henrique grinds to late decision or finish
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