Charlotte FC at New England Revolution

MLS May 02, 2026 11:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

54% Lean

SPREAD

New England Revolution

-0.5

OMEGA spread vs market -0.5 gives 0.5pt value; home posterior 52% exceeds 50% cover threshold

Ω Bottom Line

NE Rev ML +115 (52% posterior vs 46.5% mkt, +11.8 EV); Over 2.5 +14.9pp (exp 6.8 goals)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

New England Revolution

Line: -0.5

54%

OMEGA spread vs market -0.5 gives 0.5pt value; home posterior 52% exceeds 50% cover threshold

MONEYLINE

New England Revolution

54%

calibrated 52.0% vs market 46.5% (+5.5pp edge); exceeds breakeven by 5.5%

TOTAL

over

Line: 2.5

60%

Over 2.5 posterior 64.9% vs 50% implied (+14.9pp); OMEGA total vs market 2.5 (5pt edge), MC proj 6.8

Game Analysis

Bayesian fusion posterior 52% NE home win vs 46.5% implied (+5.5pp, 11.8 EV at +115 ML); Omega spread even vs market -0.5 adds value on home cover. Total mismatch huge: 64.9% over 2.5 posterior (MC 6.8 exp goals, omega 7.5) vs market 50% (+23.9 EV) despite 47F temps. Moderate whale on home confirms, but data gaps cap conf.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Peyton Miller New England Revolution

Under 0.5 goals 62%

Model projection: 3 goals in 7 matches (0.43 avg), low vs Charlotte defense; matchup adjustment down

PROP ALERT

Matt Turner New England Revolution

Over 3.0 saves 60%

Model projection: typical MLS GK saves ~3.2; Charlotte pace projects moderate shots

PROP ALERT

Mamadou Fofana New England Revolution

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

Model projection: defender usage low but home tilt boosts; season avg adjusted up

PROP ALERT

Andrew Farrell New England Revolution

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 61%

Model projection: CB minimal shots; Charlotte limits wing play

PROP ALERT

Damario Mcintosh New England Revolution

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Model projection: low usage forward, avg minimal goals

PROP ALERT

Matt Turner New England Revolution

Under 3.5 saves 57%

Model projection slight under at home vs Charlotte low pace

PROP ALERT

Peyton Miller New England Revolution

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 60%

Model projection: goal threat, home boost vs Charlotte backline

PROP ALERT

Ilay Feingold New England Revolution

Under 0.5 assists 58%

Model projection: low creator role in attack

PROP ALERT

Kristijan Kahlina Charlotte FC

Over 2.5 saves 61%

Model projection: road GK faces NE home shots; avg adjusted up

PROP ALERT

Ashley Westwood Charlotte FC

Under 0.5 assists 62%

Model projection: midfielder low assist rate vs NE press

PROP ALERT

Andrew Johnson Charlotte FC

Under 0.5 goals 59%

Model projection: forward struggles on road at Gillette

PROP ALERT

Luca de la Torre Charlotte FC

Over 1.0 shots_on_target 57%

Model projection: usage up in attack vs NE defense

PROP ALERT

Tim Ream Charlotte FC

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 60%

Model projection: CB no shot volume

PROP ALERT

Ashley Westwood Charlotte FC

Over 45.5 passing_yards 58%

Model projection: high volume passer, leader at 539 yds

PROP ALERT

Nathan Byrne Charlotte FC

Under 0.5 assists 56%

Model projection: fullback low creativity

PROP ALERT

Kristijan Kahlina Charlotte FC

Under 3.0 saves 59%

Model projection: NE low shots expected

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