Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards
Ω
OMEGA PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Washington Wizards
+5.5
Omega -3 vs market -5.5 creates 2.5pt cushion; MC shows Wizards cover +3 at 49.5%
Ω Bottom Line
Wizards +185 ML +23EV (our 52.6% vs 35% breakeven); omega -3/203 vs market -5.5/250 inflated by injury overreaction
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Washington Wizards
Line: +5.5
Omega -3 vs market -5.5 creates 2.5pt cushion; MC shows Wizards cover +3 at 49.5%
MONEYLINE
Washington Wizards
Our 52.6% win prob vs market 69.2% implied (breakeven 35.1%); omega ML -111 vs +185
TOTAL
under
Line: 250.5
Omega total 203 vs market 250.5 (-47.5pt discrepancy); MC under 49.4% at 203
Game Analysis
OMEGA projects Wizards 103-100 (-3) with 52.6% win prob despite 5 injuries each side; Bulls hit harder losing Simons/Giddey DTD + bigs out, Wizards have Davis/Sarr anchoring. No market lines means low conviction but model edge on home ML at -111 (breakeven exact). Totals risky with model losing on O/U historically.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Alex Sarr
Washington Wizards
Over 16.0 points
62%
Team leader in points/rebounds, increased usage with 5 outs
PROP ALERT
Alex Sarr
Washington Wizards
Over 7.5 rebounds
60%
Rebound leader, more opportunities with frontcourt injuries
PROP ALERT
Bub Carrington
Washington Wizards
Over 4.5 assists
58%
Assist leader, handles ball more with backcourt outs
PROP ALERT
Bilal Coulibaly
Washington Wizards
Over 12.5 points
55%
Usage spike with multiple wings/guards out
PROP ALERT
D'Angelo Russell
Washington Wizards
Over 18.0 points
63%
Veteran PG steps up with Young/Hardy out
PROP ALERT
Kyshawn George
Washington Wizards
Over 5.0 rebounds
57%
Rotation player gets extra boards
PROP ALERT
Justin Champagnie
Washington Wizards
Under 8.5 points
56%
Limited role even with injuries
PROP ALERT
Rob Dillingham
Chicago Bulls
Over 5.5 assists
60%
PG duties expand with multiple guards out