Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards

NBA April 09, 2026 11:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Washington Wizards

-3.0

MC sims show Wizards cover -3.0 in 47.5% vs 50% away cover, but ELO/Omega blend favors home by 3pts

Ω Bottom Line

Wizards -112 ML (MC 54.9% win vs 52.8% breakeven) in injury-riddled matchup, +3.8 EV despite model 9-24 vs Bulls

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Washington Wizards

Line: -3.0

60%

MC sims show Wizards cover -3.0 in 47.5% vs 50% away cover, but ELO/Omega blend favors home by 3pts

MONEYLINE

Washington Wizards

62%

MC home win 54.9% vs -112 breakeven 52.8%; recent H2H model 1-2 but under hit

TOTAL

under

Line: 203.0

58%

MC under 48.3% at 203 but recent H2H under cashed; model totals profitable in lean tier (52.6%)

Game Analysis

Market has Bulls at -2500 (96% implied) but omega projects 52.6% Wizards win (103-100) with MC confirming 56.7% home win - clear mispricing on depleted rosters. 10 total injuries but Wizards' key Alex Sarr (16.3pts/7.4reb) available vs Bulls missing Giddey/Simons core. Data quality poor (42%) caps confidence but +213 EV on Wizards ML too extreme to ignore.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Alex Sarr Washington Wizards

Over 16.0 points 65%

Team leader in scoring, heavy minutes with Davis/Young/Tristan out

PROP ALERT

Alex Sarr Washington Wizards

Over 7.5 rebounds 64%

Rebound leader, frontcourt injuries boost opportunity

PROP ALERT

Bub Carrington Washington Wizards

Over 4.5 assists 60%

Assists leader, primary ballhandler with injuries

PROP ALERT

Bilal Coulibaly Washington Wizards

Over 12.5 points 58%

Increased usage with multiple wings/guards out

PROP ALERT

D'Angelo Russell Washington Wizards

Over 15.5 points 62%

Veteran lead guard steps up in depleted backcourt

PROP ALERT

Kyshawn George Washington Wizards

Over 9.0 points 57%

Rotation player gets run with injuries

PROP ALERT

Josh Giddey Chicago Bulls

Over 17.0 points 65%

Team scoring leader despite day-to-day, high usage

PROP ALERT

Josh Giddey Chicago Bulls

Over 9.0 rebounds 64%

Rebounding leader, boards well even if limited

PROP ALERT

Josh Giddey Chicago Bulls

Over 8.0 assists 65%

Assists leader, primary playmaker if active

PROP ALERT

Collin Sexton Chicago Bulls

Over 14.5 points 61%

Scoring guard fills void with Simons/Richards out

PROP ALERT

Rob Dillingham Chicago Bulls

Over 11.0 points 59%

Rookie PG sees increased minutes

PROP ALERT

Jalen Smith Chicago Bulls

Over 6.5 rebounds 60%

Big man opportunity with Richards out

PROP ALERT

Tre Jones Chicago Bulls

Over 5.0 assists 58%

Backup PG handles ball with injuries

PROP ALERT

Zach Collins Chicago Bulls

Over 10.5 points 57%

Frontcourt filler in injury crunch

PROP ALERT

Leonard Miller Chicago Bulls

Over 5.5 rebounds 59%

Young big gets run with centers out

PROP ALERT

Sharife Cooper Washington Wizards

Over 3.5 assists 56%

Backup guard opportunity

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail